Fuck AI

Funny enough, it even spends half the article discussing the exact paper I shared above.

That's why I shared it. It covers the general viewpoints and presents evidence for each. It's not a well established area so researchers can claim various things based on their specific metrics and definitions. Still blows my mind overall how far this has come in such a short time.

One thing it doesn't discuss but that I also think needs to be brought up is that even if a model shows emergent behavior at one level of scale, that's no guarantee that further emergence effects will continue to 'unlock' at higher scales.

I don't think anyone has claimed that explicitly (I haven't).

Bigger picture is that LLMs are still not perfectly understood and because of that there's a lot of big claims from salespeople that want to sell their product. Also as of last year (which is the last time I did a dive on AGI), there were many that didn't believe that simply scaling LLMs is the way to AGI (btw you should look up the prevailing proposals for how to reach AGI). That doesn't mean there isn't a ton of use for LLMs + application-specific engineering in the meantime, because that's already shown to be true. This is where companies are making bank, not in the fundamental research level.