this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2025
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I agree, but it is nearly impossible for a normal investor to be certain that the current stock price ISN'T the lowest it'll ever be. The bullshitters have an incentive to keep up the lies a few years longer, just look at the housing bubble, and when it burst, it might burst down to the current level or even higher, if that happens in a couple of years.
I was right once when I sold my ETFs before the Ukraine crisis unfolded, but I realise now that I was stupid-lucky-right. Will never do that again.
Also, I fully expect that some AI usage will withstand a critical review, and will prevail, just like the dot-com.
Then, there is the risk that the unexpected breakthrough DOES come, and the ai-super-senior can fix all the vibe-coded nonsense. I don't see it in the next 5 years, but both unexpected breakthroughs as well as unexpected plateaus have happened in the past.