Fuck AI

Hehe. We've already had several "AI winter"s. For me it's pretty much settled by now that transformers and maybe even large language models itself won't scale well past what we have today. And I don't think they'll lead to super-intelligence, which used to be the sales pitch. And I think several high profile scientists hold that opinion. I'm really split on this. These bubbles are volatile. All it takes is enough head fond managers to pull out and maybe a large company like Microsoft. It's somewhat rare companies at that size just fail, but I guess it's possible?! I mean I've also predicted Bitcoin to fail several times now because it's not as usable as promised, yet that always climbs to a new record high. So I'm a bit more careful with my predictions these days. There's still lots of things we can shoehorn AI in to. We'll see it in robotics and that's barely started. And ultimately this bubble isn't fueled by realistic expectations in the first place, so I'm not sure if any factual statement itself can change this. It'll grow as long as it grows, as long as Sam Altman is able to deliver promises and as long as there's enough money pumped in. Which might change once there isn't enough money available anymore or if it actually stagnates for long enough for investors to want out. I just don't think they'll listen to reason.