Technology

collapse already

If someone says 10x it's probably bullshit. 100x it's definitely bullshit. I don't even have a term for 1000x

the next 1000x in 4-5 years

At the risk of stating the obvious, Ars is working backwards from this metric to get their headline "double every 6 months." 2^10 = 1024, to get that number in 5 years means doubling every half-year.

But Google didn't set incremental 6-month deadlines for 5 years straight, they set a single 5-year deadline. Because in 6 months shareholders can call their bluff quite easily, but in 5 years they're hoping everyone is A) distracted by some new disaster, or B) there's a new tech hype cycle they can push. They're trying to stall the bubble popping by pointing to a nebulous future where they magically scale to infinity, and hoping we all forget that they ever made this claim.

We need to turn the entire world into ~~paperclips~~ GPUs

Well that's totally sustainable.

Doubling every year would be crazy unsustainable at Google scale, but to tell employees you need to do so every 6 months seems like a fever dream of someone that doesn't understand what they are asking (or knows they aren't responsible for actually doing it). The old "just throw it over the fence" approach that corporate kool-aid drinkers love because they can take credit and shift blame.

puts a bunch of AI features in, turns them on by default without user’s asking for them, mandates employees use it when ever they can.

“How could this be a bubble? Look at all the demand!”

Double every six months? Yeah. Totally feasible and absolutely not a bubble at all.

so... it'll collapse in 6 months?

"demand" 😒👌🏻

Gaslighting. Processor capacity doubles every 2 years according to Moore's law which at best can be energy neutral. All other increases can only come from proportional energy increases. So instead of needing 1000x the energy, at best it is 250x.

Better get some fully functioning fusion reactors to power all that.

what demand??

Google’s AI infrastructure head Amin Vahdat told employees that the company must double its serving capacity every six months to meet demand for artificial intelligence services, reports CNBC.

Sound awfully like a cancer tumour inside Amin's head.

collaboration and co-design

Bribing?

"My loyal advisor," said the king, "I must grant you a reward for your many years of good service. What is it that you desire?" And the advisor asked the king, "Sire, simply give me one grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second square, four on the third square and so forth until all sixty-four squares are filled." "Such a small thing?" said the king. "It shall be done at once." And so the advisor was given all the rice in the kingdom.

So...no different from shareholders. Nothing changes while everything changes.

I'm really high and at first glance saw all the colorful pipes as like a 90s McDonalds play area.

I feel like that interpretation made this whole article ~70% less silly.