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I only have intermediate knowledge. Most of it comes from sources like Behind the Bastards, Lions Led by Donkeys, Perun, Civilis Historia, Ken Burn's Civil War, Ken Burn's Vietnam, and so forth. You will have to ask a veteran officer or historian for better information. Anyhow, I will relate what I vaguely recall.
The Trump Regime has been doing many things to erode the competence and loyalty of the federal military. For example, destroying the cultural clubs that soldiers were part of, removing medical care from LGBTQ+ members, eliminating proven minority leadership and replacing them with white dudes like Hegseth, whitewashing history like the 'Enola Gay' from military libraries, and so on. This also applies to three-letter agencies. In effect, the most capable soldiery of America's military is no longer part of the federal government, which allows them to be hired by Blue States.
Also, the United States are huge. Short of decapitating the majority of Blue State leadership in one fell blow, it is unlikely for the Trump Regime to own the majority of the military. The soldiers and their leaders are much more likely to be loyal to their respective states than the concept of the United States, especially if the federal government has been mistreating them. Trump himself said that soldiers are suckers, and they will remember such acts of disrespect towards their service. Soldiers are not automated drones, they have thoughts and feelings, as many an empire has fatally discovered.
After the 1st American Civil War was declared, many people throughout the nation moved around to wherever was more ideologically suited to them. You had southerners joining the north's military, and the reverse. If a new civil war breaks out, it is very likely that the half of the first year would be spent on shuffling around men and hardware, alongside communities deciding where they belong. It would be extremely messy, and won't lend itself to an instant resolution of a war.