The University of Cambridge’s Social Decision-Making Lab collected over 62,000 public posts from the Facebook accounts of hundreds of US politicians, commentators and media outlets before and after these events to see how they affected online behaviour.*
“We wanted to understand the kinds of content that went viral among Republicans and Democrats during this period of high tension for both groups,” said Malia Marks, PhD candidate in Cambridge’s Department of Psychology and lead author of the study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“Negative emotions such as anger and outrage along with hostility towards opposing political groups are usually rocket fuel for social media engagement. You might expect this to go into hyperdrive during times of crisis and external threat.”
“However, we found the opposite. It appears that political crises evoke not so much outgroup hate but rather ingroup love,” said Marks.
Just after the Trump assassination attempt, Republican-aligned posts signalling unity and shared identity received 53% more engagement than those that did not – an increase of 17 percentage points compared to just before the shooting.
These included posts such as evangelist Franklin Graham thanking God that Donald Trump is alive, and Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham posting: “Bleeding and unbowed, Trump faces relentless attacks yet stands strong for America. This is why his followers remain passionately loyal.”
At the same time, engagement levels for Republican posts attacking the Democrats saw a decrease of 23 percentage points from just a few days earlier.
After Biden suspended his re-election campaign, Democrat-aligned posts expressing solidarity received 91% more engagement than those that did not – a major increase of 71 percentage points over the period shortly before his withdrawal.
Posts included former US Secretary of Labor Robert Reich calling Biden “one of our most pro-worker presidents”, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi posting that Biden’s “legacy of vision, values and leadership make him one of the most consequential Presidents in American history.”
Biden’s withdrawal saw the continuation of a gradual rise in engagement for Democrat posts attacking Republicans – although over the 25 July days covered by the analysis almost a quarter of all conservative posts displayed “outgroup hostility” compared to just 5% of liberal posts.
It was broadly assumed, since it was a welcome boost for them, but it was never confirmed