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Europe and Canada Are Finally Saying No to the U.S. F-35 Stealth Fighter, Motivated By a Desire For “Strategic Autonomy”
(nationalsecurityjournal.org)
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I agree, I think that's a likely route for Canada. A small F-35 order, supplemented by continually upgraded 4++ aircraft that can be built in country is a good strategy to mitigate all risk factors. It doesn't give Canada the best option for really any scenario, but it gives them a good option for every one. With loyal wingman aircraft, and drones proliferating in general. Its likely 4 gen aircraft will have more usable roles countering and supplementing new air tactics as nations adapt to technologies. So even if 4 gen aircraft lose the ability to be front line strike and intercepter aircraft, they likely can still be productive members of the system. Saab commitment to the Gripen platform likely means Canada can continue integrating high level electronics for a long time. With proper investment in air defense systems, I think this strategy could get Canada to a 6th gen replacement from Europe while still maintaining a credible deterrent posture.