this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2025
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The bubble won't pop. AI has become a national defense initiative. The only thing that will pop NVIDIA's bubble is another chip designer coming out with something better. Maybe someone will use AI that ran on NVIDIA to build something else, therefore using NVIDIA to kill NVIDIA.
I think there is an AI bubble, but the aftermath will be like the dot com bubble: the internet didn't go away, but a bunch of businesses that were only ever valuable because they were on the internet did.
OpenAI won't go away, but a bunch of companies whose products are pretty much wrappers for ChatGPT will.
Funny, I would propose the exact opposite. OpenAI is doomed, they are committed to spending more money than they can ever hope to earn, and already have a hard time raising anything covering their operating expenses, let alone the training of new innovative models. Their life will only keep getting harder and they'll never have it as good as they did in 2023.
On the other hand, alternative models get better every day and have tokens that cost a fraction of those from large model makers. Some of what you call ChatGPT "wrappers" actually have solid and healthy business models and are burning reasonable amounts of cash (reasonable for VC backed businesses anyway). They'll just switch to cheaper models when price pressure tells them to and they'll be fine.