The highest unemployment rate during the great depression was 24%. The knockon effects of almost 12% of the ecconomy losing work will make that pale in comparison. But hey, this 12% is probably just at the beginning. After all, AI is the worst it will ever be.
This seems like a recipe for guillotines or UBI. Wonder wich the rich will choose?
Edir: was he the first of many?
Well, it's a nuanced matter. In the short term? People will shift jobs. But theres 2 peovlems with that: (1) this creates a glut of workers in the short term because there can only be so many plumbers; (2) it takes a long time to shift careers because there's time needed to retrain.
For 2, take doctors for example. If AI can do the job, that doesn't mean that MD can just take off and be a plumber. That takes time, and its faster to make new Ai for other doctor positions too. In they retool to a plumber, they need to learn how a water heater works. Add onto that the massive investment into robo-tizing that. Also, it was a huuuuuge investmemt into being a doctor. It takes k-12 grade school, 4 year for your bachelor's, then 4 more for the md. That's 20 years.
For 1, if there's a glut, that means wages are suppressed. Also, that becomea an attractive field for AI to take over.