this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2026
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There's definitely an element of reflexive "China Bad!" in these predictions of imminent collapse. But I do feel like I'm talking to a KHiver doing the High Hopes dance in late October 2024.
The irrationality of the China Hawks feels endless. This country is simultaneously about the launch a Third World War on every regional neighbor and mere weeks away from complete societal implosion. It's always on the verge of some kind of cataclysm that will Change Everything.
The sentiment seems to parallel people predicting the end of the AI bubble, people predicting that Trump will keel over and die from Oldtimers in the next few days, and people insisting they're holding a winning lottery ticket two days before the drawing. Just total divorce from material conditions.