I don't know. I worked as a software dev for 5 years and have a BS in CS. I've transitioned to ecological work. The progress I've seen with Claude Code specifically has convinced me that even moderate gains in intelligence will lead to the functional replacement of several data entry and junior programming jobs.
It's true that people overestimate LLM performance in other domains. But, software is easy to generate synthetic data for, objectively testable by adversarial models, etc.