I work in finance (IT side) if the bubble is gonna burst all the ppl making money off of it haven't got the memo and I trust their collective intelligence over this woman.
this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2025
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And then AI will just go away and everything will go back to normal again, yes? It'll suddenly stop working and so people will stop using it for all the things they're currently using it for.
people will stop using it for all the things they're currently using it for
They will when AI companies can no longer afford to eat their own costs and start charging users a non-subsidized price. How many people would keep using AI if it cost $1 per query? $5? $20?
OpenAI lost $5 billion last year. Billion, with a B. Even their premium customers lose them money on every query, and eventually the faucet of VC cash propping this whole thing up is gonna run dry when investors inevitably realize that there's no profitable business model to justify this technology. At that point, AI firms will have no choice but to pass their costs on to the customer, and there's no way the customer is going to stick around when they realize how expensive this technology actually is in practice.
There are free open models you can go and download right now, that are better than SOTA 12-18 months ago, and that cost you less to run on a gaming PC than playing COD does. Even if openai, anthropic et al disappeared without a trace tomorrow AI wouldnt go away.
And those are useful tools, which will always be around. The current “AI” industry bubble is predicated on total world domination by an AGI, which is not technically possible given the underpinnings of the LLM methodology. Sooner or later, the people with the money will realize this. They’re stupid, so it may take a while.
The post I was replying to was saying
people will stop using it for all the things they're currently using it for
They will when AI companies can no longer afford to eat their own costs and start charging users a non-subsidized price.
i.e. people will stop using AI when user have to pay the "real" price (what this is is left unspecified and an exercise to the reader to figure out). My point was that even if the AI price from those provided to infinity AI usage wouldnt drop to zero like they imply.
that's fine though, people aren't mad about models you can run locally, even though now it takes 30 seconds instead of 5 to get a response from my ERP bot.
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Absolutely not. AI tech will continue to be pushed by C-suites convinced they can surplus a fraction of their workforce eventually. The change will be that most of the investments in AI companies will disappear overnight and most will go belly-up. It will erase a significant fraction of everyone's pension funds, and federal governments around the world will pour public funds into propping up the larger companies so that they don't go under too. Heads they win, tails you lose.
I highly doubt it will, but I would not be sad if it did.
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With Shiller PE at 40x, only fools are investing into the market right now. History will be the judge again in due time. It's a repeat of the 1920s.
Where do you invest then? Because keeping all cash sounds bad at the moment too.
There are plenty of profitable companies with lower PE ratios.
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