This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
So what happens to all this hardware when this comes crashing down due to unsustainability? I mean they are already losing so much money if anyone fully uses their subscription. And if they raise prices, people will stop using it completely. I’ll pay $20 a month. I will not pay $1000 a month.
I mean if there is a fire sale I could put a few of these NVIDIA DGX B200 in a lab 🥹
The cost will come down in 3 generations a lot, but the 1to3 trillion spent now to then will be worthless.
I just don't see the cost coming down. It appears the expenses go up fairly linearly with their revenue, and if they lose subs, they'll have to recoup that difference.
There was an article about open AIs finances the other day, and they lost 20 billion just last year, which is up about 4x from the previous year. Yes their revenue also when up 4x, but that the dollar amount for the loses grew more. If they keep on a similar trajectory, even investors are going to step away.
Prices have already gone up for at least Copilot and Gemini to token use pricing from borderline unlimited use. It's going to, if it hasn't already for many, reach a point that just hiring someone to do they AI work will be cheaper and more reliable.
There will be some sectors that benefit, like IT security monitoring, but I think optimized local models will take that spot. It already can for most personal users, it's easy to setup, and new hardware is coming out with local LLMs in mind.
There was just an open source subquadratic model released that performs about as good as the last round of frontier models, with a 12 million token window, but with 3 orders of magnitude less resource usage. Google also has their compressed models which greatly reduce processing. I think at some point the stuff we use frontier models for today will be running locally on our PC's and all this buildout will have been for naught or for people who have such good business cases that paying top dollar for a better model makes sense.
Hidden debt? As in on top of all the obvious debt?
...oh no
Like the whole world economy's foundation is the belief in AGI.
Happen or not, but if it does not happen, this whole thing would be very funny and painful in retrospective
The moment AGI is achieved it’s going to be a glorious destruction of society. Companies will lay off people and replace them with AGI and completely ignore the fact that no one will have money to buy anything. What we’re seeing now is just a fractional microcosm of what will happen.
