Technology

Because they really should be failing. These companies are leveraging against themselves and getting propped up by the government.

They will get bailed out just like 2008 to avoid a cataclysmic global financial meltdown. I won’t be surprised if other countries chip in to bail them out.

This is the year of the OpenAI bankruptcy.

While I agree with not buying being better that giving them money. I can't agree with leadership being smart.

This thing was never going to be profitable. So they either:
a) they're actively malicious — they were never planning on profiting which means this is basically a pump and dump scheme capable of triggering some form of recession;
b) they're fucking morons for believing their own fantasies, which judging by their public appearances would track.

Former seems just as plausible, but my bet is on the latter. These AI bro CEOs seem to be woefully average at best.

Counterpoint:

They already are losing money. They themselves do not project that they will be profitable until 2030. The idea that "smart people with spreadsheets won't let them lose money" is obviously wrong because they have done nothing except lose money, ever.

They get thier operating capital from funding, not sales.

Now, I agree that the gambit is wrong. So you're right. You're just right for the wrong reason.

Funding is just the cash value of market optimism for the future of your product. High usage props up optimism. Social media IPOs were valued very much based on active users, the idea being that more users meant more opportunity for profit.

The more people actively using these tools, even if they're just maliciously burning tokens, just add to the "active users" metric. Which makes funding easier. And funding is the ACTUAL way these companies "make thier money".

The leaders of the companies are not stupid. If they started seeing a net loss from their sales strategy, they'd change strategies.

Unless money is not the goal. Not the sole goal at least. As you said, they're not stupid. It's entirely within reason to assume they may be aiming for more than just money.

Who knows what they're planning. Nothing good for us - that's for sure.

Despite the popular fantasy, the rich and powerful are not stupid.

Uh... famously untrue. Mental illness has plagued monarchs, pharaohs, and caesers for millennia. That's long before you get to all the quirked up white boys and trad rad girl bosses currently running things.

You don’t know more about a company or market from passively consuming headlines than the leadership of that company.

Okay, but you can review their balance sheets and their primary lines of credit. Case in point, Sam Altman is heavily reliant on three big financial partners - Softbank, Oracle, and NVIDIA. Two of these are - themselves - hemorrhaging money thanks to large capital outlays that have failed to produce substantive returns.

There are finance journalists who get out ahead of this and report their own analysis. And you can find that in a thousand different private journals, substacks, and podcasts. But you can also go do the grunt work yourself if you're ambitious.

OpenAI's financials have been disclosed already (although the official SEC filing is still upcoming). So... just read them if you doubt what you're reading in the news. But it's not some kind of secret that the business is operating at a loss, with a fixation on debt-fueled growth. The argument is over future projected revenue, which isn't something business leadership can be any more certain of than a passive media consumer.

I definitely get the knee-jerk impulse to announce "business professionals know more about business than internet idiots". Because, sure. True. But the idea that business professionals don't routinely make bad decisions has some pretty historic well-established counterpoints.

"The business people know more" line is akin to saying "This used car dealer must know more about the vehicles on his lot than I do, so I can trust him".

Is this just a sexual Ouroboros?

https://www.larp.website/

These guys should adopt it as their logo. It's gotta be satire right!? Right?

offer nothing substantive

Like industrial farming, there is nothing new, but now everybody can create memes and create software. Society will change.

use their cheapest plan, burn their tokens, burn the hole in their budget. could backfire though as then "clever analysts" will claim that demand is up and eager bankers will shell out more cash

Ah right, they're "too big to fail".

Unfortunately they would broadly be systems that need about 15kw, and as part of a board that won't work as discrete parts.

So you get it, but you'll need a couple of 60 amp circuits to dedicate to it... Also you have no viable video out

An Ouroboros made of shit