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Laittakaa meemejä tänne.
You won't get the GPUs. Most of the AI hardware is not usable to you. They didn't just sell all the desktop RAM and GPUs to AI companies, they dedicated most of the production to data center hardware that you can't use. Relief isn't coming, what you need doesn't exist.
I’m more concerned with jobs in the best future, tbh
I'm sure with all these AI startups there's plenty that used consumer grade stuff because that's what they could get
Either way though, I run enterprise servers in my homelab so I stand to benefit even if mostly enterprise server RAM and data center class GPUs hit the market
You can rent consumer grade GPUs on cloud servers for your AI computing, so yes
And they're not going to switch production back to consumer hardware either. Those data centers will be used to sell virtual desktop subscriptions.
The hardware in those DCs isn't suitable for virtual desktops. It's specifically designed for doing lossy matrix multiplication, something that's only useful for a certain type of "AI" tasks.
At that point I'm willing to raid a data center
Why the fuck would anyone buy this. Come on.
Because they will have no other option once their existing system dies. In this scenario actual PCs will be something only the wealthy can afford. Everyone else gets dumb terminals.
And honestly, VDI is great from a general user standpoint. It's the companies who run it that make it a bad option.
Well, they're also a bad option when the data centers hosting them get bombed
I'm far from an expert on these things, but I have a tough time believing that latency won't be a critical issue for many consumer applications.
With ftth, latency isn't as big of an issue as it used to be.
Because people are fucking idiots.
I long for the headline that Sam Altman in total collapse ate his own pistol.
once thiel stops pulling his string.
Even if the AI bubble collapses tomorrow (it won't), to see lower consumer prices you would either need old stock to be marked down or the fabs that are currently making AI cards to switch to making gaming cards and those cards to be manufactured and come through the market. That will take months. Not only does the bubble need to pop, but everyone involved needs to believe and accept that it has popped, otherwise they will continue to keep prices high and AI production high in the hope that their plans remain correct.
Remember that it's psychologically much harder to accept making a less money than you thought, which happens when you mark down prices, compared to making more money than you thought, which happens when you mark up prices! This is why prices tend to be "downwards sticky" and so, instead of going down when demand drops/supply improves, they instead tend to stagnate while other prices continue to rise gradually with inflation.
That will take months.
Dude, I've been waiting to buy a new card for something like a decade. I can wait months.
but everyone involved needs to believe and accept that it has popped
That's the very definition of a bubble popping. Something's a bubble when people believe it has value when it really doesn't. The bubble popping is the moment everybody realizes the value was an illusion and there's a rush to get out. As long as people still believe that there's still value, it's still a bubble and hasn't popped.
We're already in the stage of the bubble when many people know it's a bubble and are doing everything possible to hedge against the bubble popping, while others just keep pouring more money in.
I think someone saying, "come on, burst already" does not see the bubble popping as "when diminishing confidence in AI has reached all bits of the economy" because they see it as something likely to happen soon, and that ain't happening soon. However, we may see reduced AI investment from some quarters soon.
It's also worth recalling that stock market bubbles can and do pop very suddenly - I don't think it's that reasonable to take a definition that spreads it out over months, but maybe that's what you're saying.
What I'm saying is that when it happens it will probably be fast, and it could happen anytime. I personally think it still has at least half a year to go because I think the tech / AI companies are so close to the Trump administration that it will jump in to save them if there's a problem, which will delay the pop by a few months.
But, I can't see the bubble deflating slowly. The bubble is just too big for that. They're betting on AI Jesus. Investors won't be satisfied with a normal technology which is somewhat useful, not after pouring trillions into it. Just to break even, the AI companies need to reach revenues of multiple trillions of dollars. That's almost 10x more than Google makes, and it's a mature 20-year-old company that has a monopolies in multiple areas.
Just to break even, it has to be something that every single person on earth spends hundreds of dollars on each year. And, since that includes multiple billions of people who don't have hundreds of dollars to spend, it's really multiple thousands of dollars spent by every person, or spent on behalf of a person in a developed country.
Also, when the AI bubble pops, nobody will have any GPU money because they need it to bail out the AI companies to prevent the global economy from blowing up and flinging the entire cosmos into Satan's buttcrack.
By that time, nobody will be able to blink without AI because everyone is using it all the time for everything even though everyone knows the AI bubble is going to pop and the world will go to shit because everyone depends on AI.
I have no idea what we're doing, but I'm sure it's fun to watch from far away.
Who said anything about wanting gaming GPUs?
ah I didn't realise you actually wanted to release your own model 🤔
Release? Probably not
But the LLM tech is cool to experiment with, and there are useful use cases, but trying to run frontier class open source LLMs takes a boat load of VRAM lolol
Cons: Will probably lose my job and 401k.
Pros: Might be able to afford a video card by picking up a few extra shifts giving handjobs behind the Wendy's dumpster.
Which Wendy's specifically? You know, so I can avoid it.
If you bring a 5090, it can be whatever Wendy's you want.
I got an old 980 Hybrid, how much is that worth? 3 tugs?
I'll give you either the first 90% or the last 10%. You gotta figure the rest out on your own.
This answer cracked me up, holy shit.
Glad to be of service.
The last 10% will get you more bang for your buck.
The bubble popping probably won't help since they've stopped making consumer hardware altogether.
That'll start to turn around in a few months once manufacturers lose that easy AI money.
Can't wait to buy some god damn HDDs for my NAS when this is all over. Let the prices crash baby.
Will be interesting to see what the community does to the over-abundant vector matrizes calculators. Probably run DOOM on.
I don't wanna rent the hardware for my instance forever :(
Federal Reserve hasn't raised the interbank lending rate yet. So speculation over values 60 year domination schemes over actual consumer value vs cost now.
As long as you give banks artificially cheap loans with money printed on demand, the bubble can keep going and they can fund R&D we will regret later. Regret it because it doesn't need to satisfy a customer or use only a reasonable amount of resources. It just has to attract investors with the promise that it will attract investors with the promise that it will attract investors. It doesn't need a customer when you've messed with interest rates.
Your econ class only told you lowering interest rates increases jobs in the short term. It didn't tell you why. It adds jobs doing less strictly productive things. Long term all economies tend to the same employment level anyway. And long term lowered interest rates tend a market toward bullshit. We get more work but less consumer satisfaction. That's really to say the cost of living goes up with respect to an hour of work. And you have to compete as a consumer for resources with firms that have access to infinite cheap money.
