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I thought it was obvious from the video that he nicked his ear on the secret service person's belt buckle on the way down when they were piling onto him? It explains the paltry amount of blood that appears only after he's down, not to mention the optimal healing time. No bullet did that.
I don't believe it was staged. Everything that came after, yes, lies upon lies, exploiting the situation to its maximum potential, absolutely. But a real rifle was fired, a real bystander was killed, and Trump's secret service really was incompetent enough to let it happen. No need to invent anything when the obvious truth is damning enough.
Given how pivotal it was to his campaign, I think it's worth considering how such a thing could be pulled off if it was planned:
People that want to tell stories to drive history need the right characters. Modern information technology makes that easier than ever.
Find a kid with firearm access who's into something embarrassing online. Preferably someone who wouldn't shoot the president, so a supporter. Tell him you know what he does in secret and you'll tell everyone, including police, if they don't co-operate.
Tell them to go to the chosen firing position and to shoot into the crowd behind the candidate. Tell them you'll provide protection and a getaway. Tell them there will be a magazine loaded with blanks for them to use at the firing position (they're live rounds).
When the shots are fired, secret service ties off the loose end without any interaction from the planners, and the kid never even has a name for who put him up to it.
Or tell a crazy person you think there'll be someone who is going to try to assinate the president and no one believes you on a forum. Drip feed it so you get him to go exactly where you want. .