this post was submitted on 30 Apr 2026
37 points (100.0% liked)

Technology

42829 readers
412 users here now

A nice place to discuss rumors, happenings, innovations, and challenges in the technology sphere. We also welcome discussions on the intersections of technology and society. If it’s technological news or discussion of technology, it probably belongs here.

Remember the overriding ethos on Beehaw: Be(e) Nice. Each user you encounter here is a person, and should be treated with kindness (even if they’re wrong, or use a Linux distro you don’t like). Personal attacks will not be tolerated.

Subcommunities on Beehaw:


This community's icon was made by Aaron Schneider, under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
 

More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognized to the security of sensitive information.

Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.

That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.

The research is likely to add to growing concerns among regulators and lawmakers about insiders placing bets on the timing and success of military actions, amid fears that this could reveal classified information in advance.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] blimthepixie@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 2 hours ago (2 children)

All my Polymarket bets have been on long shots.

In related news, all my long shot Polymarket bets have lost

[–] DishaweslemOride@lemmy.org 6 points 1 hour ago

Are you betting on what you want to happen?

[–] TIN@feddit.uk 1 points 1 hour ago

Can I put long shot bets on the outcomes of your long shot bets?