this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2026
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Exactly this, especially the last sentence.
I only have pretty basic machine learning knowledge, based on a few Master's classes at college while I was doing gamedev, and even with that I can tell that the way they are expecting to get AGI by just feeding more data into a language model is simply not happening.
I remember a comparison from one of the AI-pilled tech-bros when AI was starting to get attention, and his metaphor about AGI was something along the lines of "Imagine a difference between a medieval commoner and Albert Einstein, that's the difference in inteligence AI will soon have to the smartest people we know now".
But that doesn't make sense with the current approach. Imagine Einstein writing his cutting-edge theories, and the commoner is watching him behind his shoulder and vetting anything he does. Scratching his ideas, forcing him to redo it, if he doesn't like it, pointing to a reddit thread about why. There's no way he would ever finish anything new.
Unless they figure out a completely new way how to do AI reasoning, there is no way we're getting anywhere near AGI. And that is also becoming more unlikely the longer we go with this approach, because every AI-pilled company is heavily outsourcing all of development to the current models, reducing their employee (and the whole worlds) innovation potential and skill. This is probably the last generation that can do serious academia, unless there are drastic measures done to limit access to AI in education. It's fucked.