Technology

The issue is that AI companies have been funded on the promise that with enough advancements and upgrades this tech will achieve AGI. Which is an absurd statement to anyone in the field actually developing these things. That is the equivalent of promising that this 260mph Bugatti, with a few years of upgrades and advancements, will become a Harrier Jump Jet!

A better analogy is promising that a toddler will, with enough knowledge and training, eventually become a heart surgeon.

15 years ago the assumption with AGI was that we needed some paradigm shift in technology to create it, but after transformer technology was invented (the T in GPT), and it was trained on a lot of information, we discovered an emergent property that it could take natural language queries and answer them with its knowledge base-- which was unexpected and unintended.

While science can always end up going down the wrong path, the current mainstream stance is that we were wrong about needing new technology for AGI; it seems that AGI may be a function of information and training, on hardware we already have. Hence all the data centers being built.

Anyone who says with certainty that it will result in AGI is just as wrong as someone who says with certainty that it won't.