Technology

Yes it is. It’s elaborate. It’s repetitive. It’s a solid illusion. But is, fundamentally, token prediction. That’s all it is, just at a level impractical for humans to run at. I could do that math. It’s not hard. It’ll just take me years to get through a single layer. Hence a level of complexity that implies something magical like consciousness.

Calling what LLMs can accomplish today next token prediction is technically accurate, yes. In the same way it's accurate to call the human brain a prediction machine. As data streams in from our senses it causes unconscious awareness, activating the chains concepts we've learned from past data to correlate with the data of the moment in order to predict what's coming next.

When most people use terms like next token prediction they're often trying to use it with an implication that it's a simple thing and nothing big or important could grow out of it. That's not the case. The fact that we can now study a global workspace in AI models that have been around for years is shocking. It's already causing consternation in neuroscience and psychology researchers. Over the last several years we've insisted that AI cannot possibly share the most important aspects of the human mind, but one by one everything we pointed to in order to differentiate ourselves was shown by research to have a strikingly similar allegory in modern AI.

Because some rich assholes wanted to get richer and the dream of AGI was close enough (even though it was never in reach) that they went rabid for the tech that would make them kings over us serfs forever.

You genuinely believe that the researchers under tight NDA in the frontier labs agree with you on AGI not being anywhere near reach? Or do you think you have a deeper understanding of the topic?

If it doesn't get to that, as soon as that thought begins to take hole the massive amount of money poured in to it will virtually evaporate over night. It would create a massive financial crisis and the most powerful companies, government bodies, and individuals would be extremely unhappy with the leaders of those labs and researchers who knew but gave no warning. Pushing for it without believing in it would be setting themselves up to be universally hated at best.

once the bulk of humanity is dead

And then what? They live in paradise? For a year or two maybe before their machines inevitably break down? The “kill off humanity” conspiracy has never made sense from the capitalist angle. They want slaves not corpses. They’re huffing their own farts, but they know that these things can’t do everything needed to keep humanity going. And lording over robots isn’t nearly as fun as upping human suffering even if they could.

There's a huge difference between the bulk of humanity and the entirety of humanity. Saving .1% scattered through the world with a vaccine that was developed "just in time" to save anyone would give plenty of people to lord over who are grateful for the wonderful people who stepped in and helped save them, leave them in control of production with far less people in need of a share of that production, and reduce global emissions enough that it would likely help the environment recover from the damage we've caused in relatively short order.