this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2026
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I have no problem with that. Disagreeing about the analysis is okay. The reductionist dismissal that I was doing a moral argument, I could do without.
I will not reject the possibility of your conjectured outcome either. However, I do find your analysis lacking on the part of Europe having no enemies. The nightmare scenario for the European elite is not solely Russian aggression, but getting tag teamed by both Russia and the US.
The crux of the issue is this: The US is threatening explicit subjugation if we do not play ball, and increasing vassalization if we do. The contradiction/compromise of NATO is shifting. The US needs and demands more from its vassals, I agree, but the vassals are eyeing an opportunity to reposition themselves in the emerging new world order.
There is no "Russian aggression".
It is at best provoked reactions to US/UK/EU aggression.
We could be friends with Russia, and could've been for a long time if not for the US/EU fascist and rabidly anti-communist and imperialistic attitude.
That is the nightmare scenario for the US and one of the main reasons for the existence of NATO.
And here some facts that confirm all this posturing and independence talk is nonsense.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sell-america-buyers-europe-piled-into-treasuries-2025-data-shows-2026-01-22/ https://www.reddit.com/r/InBitcoinWeTrust/comments/1qo6471/europeans_are_piling_into_us_stocks_european/#lightbox
Firstly, "we" are not friends with any of the capitalist states, at best circumstantial allies. Secondly, I agree on NATO's importance for the US, it is an interdependency after all.
The capitalists are not under political control, we both know it's the other way around, so why would we expect them to subject their private wealth to financial discipline based on the strategic ambitions? They are not about to abolish capitalism, but strategically reposition themselves to maintain it.
We are also talking about different groups within the capitalist class and different time frames. The military dependency will take more than a decade to change. The investment in US stocks is record high right now due to the current financial bubble, working as intended of course, vacuuming the world for surplus value.
The contradiction remains unsolved and will increase when the bubble bursts, fascism rises yet even more and the US gets absolutely demolished by China due to the difference in long term planning and industrialisation.