Canada

PQ is on really thin ice, their current number of seats even in minority is precarious. They won 3 or so of them by a few hundred votes and they aren't closely behind in enough places to make a majority.

Liberals and Conservatives have way more comfortable margins than polls would have given them. If the CAQ vote truely evaporates, virtually none of it is going PQ.

It would take 3 parties to trigger an election though, so it'll likely be QS who will call it because PLQ and PCQ might want it within a year or two at their benefit.

I don't believe PSPP will handle the pressure of being PM well and will get into conspiracy laden rants online or with journalists pretty soon. He is so soup au lait. Possibly the least deserving prime minister we've had since the Quiet Revolution. The only one with zero cabinet experience.

He's constantly arguing with people on social media and clashing with media. Believes in US culture war nonsense and speaks out against "wokism", "the radical left" and "gender ideology". He constantly dog whistles Great Replacement theory ideas, saying immigrants crowd up schools and housing, but Quebec natalism needs to be increased.

Not a super proficient 59 elected either. Only 2 former ministers, a few Bloc and NDP former deputies, some local mayors. Way less high profile than the CAQ's bunch when they first won. Way less impressive than anything the PQ put together under Marois or Lisée.

Its going to be a shit show.