this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2026
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I don't think it'll happen like Radium or Asbestos because those rely on scarcity. They're physical things that can be physically controlled.
AI models aren't like that. In less than a minute anyone can download the latest models. In under an hour, they can have all the latest models sitting on their PC. Right now, there's a shortage of memory and GPUs which makes them prohibitively expensive for the average person but that won't always be the case!
Ten years from now, everyone's phones will have enough capabilities to run models that currently require a PC with a 32GB GPU.
What we could do is force AI companies and software to put warnings in the chat interfaces like cigarette cartons: "WARNING: Using LLMs for just ten minutes increases the likelihood that you will have trouble completing difficult mental tasks afterwards." (That was in the news this morning)
We also definitely need international treaties that prevent countries from allowing AI to make the decision to kill people or destroy infrastructure. Though honestly, we're already in a state where countries are willing to kill hundreds of people just to assassinate a single target (e.g. US and Israel bombing an entire building because they think their target is inside).
These are small potatoes, though, compared to what AI could do to capitalism and inequality. The rate at which it is advancing is faster than people/jobs can keep up. It's like half the population is ferriers and suddenly everyone was just given a free car.
Ahh to be a techno optimist.
Things could get a whole lot more authoritarian than you think. It's very early here and I can't be bothered writing out the whole response, but we have governments around the world currently trying to make using a computer require ID. We are thin edge of the wedge here with age verification to "protect the kids". Looked at from an authoritarian perspective a country with the power to dictate terms of trade says LLMs are actually military tech and need to be controlled, implement laws to restrict them or else...
If your country having access to international markets means you lose access to certain software... Now let's complicate the situation by assuming a bubble burst leads to the world heading into a mass depression, do you really think the US has the wherewithal to retain its top spot? Times of mass political and financial upheaval can, and arguably almost always do, lead to radical changes to the living circumstances of people.
In 10 years time your phone won't be running shit that the government/corporation in control doesn't explicitly approve of and monitor.