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The Shutdown Continues: Rate Cut Likely, Employment & Housing Weaken (www.forbes.com)

submitted 8 months ago by cm0002@lemmings.world to c/usa@midwest.social

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[–] ravenaspiring@sh.itjust.works 1 points 8 months ago

After hitting more record highs in early October, the equity markets look to be pausing in light of a weakening labor market and new trade tensions with China. Over the last week, markets have seen a mild sell-off. The question is: Is this the start of a long overdue market correction, or just another mild stumbling in this market juggernaut.

While economic data like the CPI and PPI and other critical information collected by the BLS won’t be available if the shutdown continues to the end of the month, there is enough private sector data that says the economy is slowing. This is especially true for employment and housing. Even before the shutdown, the official unemployment rates (U3 and U6) had risen to their highest level in four years. Nearly every private sector employment indicator showed up weaker in September. And the consumer appears to have responded by tightening their purse strings. It is likely that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at its end of October meeting.