Polymarket odds at time A can be very different from at time B. Prediction markets, like other markets, are not efficient. If they were, nobody would make any money in them.

[–] jaselle@lemmy.ca -1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

If you think probability can't change over time you need to learn about Bayesianism.

Manifold predicts generally better than Polymarket, but Polymarket is still quite accurate, accurate enough that I doubt I could do better myself, and doubt most people could do better.

Obviously an efficient prediction market should have accurate predictors make money off of less accurate predictors. Not sure what you mean by that.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I'll take my Grossman-Stiglitz over your EMH any day.

[–] jaselle@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Well I don't claim that there can't be a better way to make predictions. I'm only claiming that if there exists a better way, it's not widely available.

But hey, I invite to you to put your money where you mouth is. If you can do better than Polymarket, why don't you go ahead and make some money off it?