this post was submitted on 15 Aug 2025
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There's a lot of indication that LLMs are peaking. It's taking exponentially more compute and data to get incremental improvements. A lot of people are saying OpenAI's new model is a regression (I don't know, I haven't really played with the new model much). More foundational breakthroughs need to be made, and these kinds of breakthroughs are often the result of "eureka" moments which can't be manifested by just throwing more money at the problem. It's possible it will take decades before someone discovers a major breakthrough (or it could be tomorrow).