Canada

I agree with the ultimate goal (getting Canadian support, or at the very least Canadian silence).

I disagree about how it could possibly achieve those ends.

A weak Canada becomes little more than a US puppet. Full stop. Based on proximity, relative cultural similarities, and trade dependence, that's the inevitable result. Nothing China could ever do could alter that outcome. A weakened Canada folds into the US in global matters. If that happens, China has lost before the game even begins.

It's a strict prerequisite that Canada be able to absorb the reprocussions of breaking ranks with the USA if you want Canada to break ranks with the USA. A stable, economically diversified Canada CAN. Otherwise it CAN'T.

So "can they" is the first hurdle for China. The second is "will they". That's where this is all playing out. Over the last... I dunno, 4 years, they've been working on the "will they" by getting cozy with politicians.

Right now, they're at significant risk of backsliding from a "will they" situation back to a "can they" situation.

The USA has a much shorter path. They don't have to compete for "will they (side with USA)" if they can merely make it so that "can they (break ranks)" becomes unfeasible based on economic and political turmoil.