Microblog Memes

The auto industry:

Edit: Unfortunately despite everyone's bitching, including a very helpful friendly neighborhood train autist, we still have no better answers for how much it would cost with regular google providing wildly different answers, so good chance the below listed information is still correct given the relatively okay, but not robust sauce.

Per ChatGPT how much would it cost to interconnect all major cities with high speed rail in the usa:

Good question — there’s no single authoritative number, but based on past studies and real U.S. projects we can make some rough-order estimates of what it might cost to “interconnect all major U.S. cities” with a true high-speed rail (HSR) network — and the result tends to be in the hundreds of billions to low-trillions of dollars. Here’s how one might arrive at such a figure, with major caveats.

🔎 What we know already: cost per mile is very high

• Building HSR tracks in the U.S. is extremely expensive. For example, in California High-Speed Rail (CA-HSR), costs per mile have been estimated as high as ~ US$200 million per mile for full, 220 mph-class track. (Hoover Institution)
• Not all rail needs to be brand-new dedicated track. For less ambitious upgrades (e.g. improving existing rail corridors to somewhat higher speeds) cost estimates are much lower: in one case, upgrading ~3,000 miles of track was estimated at about US$7.7 billion — ~US$2.5 million per mile. (Congress.gov)
• A 2009 federal assessment noted a wide variation: while dedicated high-speed lines might cost tens of millions per mile (for example a projected HSR line between Los Angeles area and Las Vegas was estimated at about US$22 million to US$48 million per mile depending on route/terrain).

So the cost per mile can vary by more than an order of magnitude — depending on whether the rail is new vs upgraded, terrain, urban vs rural, tunneling/bridges, land acquisition cost, station infrastructure, electrification, signaling, etc.

🌐 What “connect all major cities” might mean — and how much track that could require

Estimating a U.S.-wide high-speed network depends a great deal on how one defines “major cities” and the level of connectivity (hub-and-spoke? dense mesh?). But even a modest network that connects perhaps 30–50 of the largest metropolitan areas would likely require tens of thousands of route-miles of new or upgraded track.

Past proposals give some sense of scale:

• A plan studied by U.S. federal authorities once envisioned about 12,800 miles of passenger-rail corridors (not necessarily full HSR), with an early cost projection of ~USD 50 billion for a “moderate-speed” rail system — but that projected cost does not apply to full-speed, dedicated HSR. (Downsizing the Federal Government)
• Analysts skeptical of HSR argue that a true nationwide high-speed rail network (serving many states and major cities with dedicated track) could cost US$500 billion to US$1 trillion — and once you “fill in all gaps,” perhaps close to US$1 trillion or more. (BLE-T)

💡 What a plausible ballpark cost looks like today

Because of all the variation, any large-scale estimate must come with wide error bounds. But a rough range:

• If you built a “skeleton” network — connecting major city clusters using mostly upgraded existing tracks and selective new segments — costs might run hundreds of billions of dollars (e.g. US$300–600 billion).
• If you instead built a more ambitious, high-speed, dedicated-track network linking most major cities (think “bullet-train everywhere”), costs could easily reach US$700 billion to over US$1 trillion, possibly more depending on scope, geography, and how modern you demand the system to be.

Indeed, some conservative projections see ~US$1 trillion as a realistic floor for a comprehensive U.S. HSR system. (BLE-T)

⚠️ Why the uncertainty is so large — and what could drive cost up or down

• Terrain & urban density: Building through mountains, hills, or densely populated urban areas (especially with tunnels/viaducts, land acquisition) dramatically increases per-mile costs (as seen in CA-HSR). (Hoover Institution)
• Shared vs dedicated tracks: Upgrading existing tracks for “higher-speed” is far cheaper than building new dedicated corridors — but yields slower speeds and sometimes lower ridership. (Congress.gov)
• Inflation, regulatory, environmental mitigation, stations, electrification, signaling, rolling stock, maintenance facilities: all add huge extra costs over just laying track. U.S. costs historically have run much higher than many international systems for comparable projects. (High Speed Rail Alliance)
• Ambition & coverage: A minimal network with only a few corridors is much cheaper; a dense mesh covering dozens of metro areas raises costs steeply.
• Political, legal, and land-rights hurdles: In the U.S., acquiring rights-of-way, dealing with local regulations, environmental reviews, and community opposition tend to add delays and cost overruns — as seen with CA-HSR. (U.S. Government Accountability Office)

🎯 Bottom line: It’s possible — but very expensive

If the U.S. decided to connect all major cities with a modern high-speed rail network (dedicated tracks, fast speeds, nationwide coverage), a realistic cost estimate is likely in the range of several hundred billion to over a trillion dollars (in today’s dollars).

If you like, I can run a rough “back-of-envelope” estimate: pick, say, the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, lay out hypothetical direct HSR connections, and compute a total cost estimate — to show you concretely what “major-city-wide national HSR” might cost under different assumptions (cheap upgrades vs full build). Do you want me to build that estimate now?