Republicans hoped to flip this because harris won by a hairs breadth, but Greene is winning by 22? A +22 point Dem over performance would be a massive landslide - maybe enough to override vetoes
this post was submitted on 06 May 2026
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It's almost like Republicans don't understand why Harris lost either.
In fairness, neither do Democrats. Or at least they're not releasing the report
Democrats have been over performing Harris 2024 by double digits in most special elections. This will probably carry over to some degree in the midterms, but don’t expect a 15+ point over performance. The political realignment of the Trump era has resulted in the most politically engaged voters moving to the Democrats, and the least engaged toward Republicans. This means that Democrats will over perform in smaller races and underperform in presidential elections. The midterms are between special elections and presidential elections in terms of turnout, so expect a muted blue wave. Party preference polling is averaging D+5 right now, so I’m guessing the midterms might be around D+8.