this post was submitted on 09 May 2026
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164
National mood is against Republicans, but redistricting could help prop them up (www.npr.org)
submitted 4 days ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
22 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

There's a dichotomy shaping up in this midterm election year. The national political landscape could hardly look worse for Trump and Republicans.

At the same time, the GOP is suddenly resurgent in the redistricting fight, getting significant wins this week in Virginia and Tennessee that could soften the blow they might have suffered without them.

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[–] lennybird@lemmy.world 53 points 4 days ago (2 children)

No matter where you are, how secure or how futile you think it is, you better be voting Democrat in November.

If you're upset by AIPAC or corporate shills, now is your chance to make Dems a little more leftist by participating in the Democratic Primaries in your state.

But vote Dem in November. Even if it's a loss, we need to make the disparity of representation versus actual popular vote due to gerrymandering as wide as possible, for that will be a point of persuasion in the longterm fight ahead and going into 2028.

[–] Eldritch@piefed.world -1 points 4 days ago

I'd say take the most effective action you can to keep a Republican from power. Whether it's voting for a Democrat or not voting at all, taking some other action. Because despite being better than Republicans. That's a low bar, and establishment Democrats are still a solid part of the problem in their own right.

Though I would hope many learned the lesson of hyper focusing only on democrats for a problem shared between the parties or more indicative of Republicans. When Democrats are unfortunately the only group that can keep a republican from power. The situation inside Israel would have likely been the same under Harris as Trump. But the situation outside, venezuela, canada, greenland, iran, Europe, Libya, etc etc etc etc. Would have been very different and probably better for all.

The establishment leadership of either party isn't interested in understanding why they lose. They're just going to chase whoever won. Which is why they spend so much time catering to fascists that vote regularly and not to progressives that will almost never vote for them out of principal. Democrats don't care to understand that the fascists won't vote for them. Simply because they are Democrat and the fash supporters have been indoctrinated to reactionarily hate them. There is no amount of outreach that will actually be able to reach those people no matter how hard they keep chasing. But they will keep chasing those that vote.

[–] MagicShel@lemmy.zip 28 points 4 days ago (3 children)

One potential upside is that Democrats are out-performing expectations by double-digits pretty much everywhere. Every district that they carve out to be Trump +8 will go blue if Dems continue to outperform by these margins.

This Gerrymandering could be setting Republicans up for a loss like they have never seen before. Such a self-own would be very on-brand for Republicans these days.

[–] crusa187@lemmy.ml 13 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

That’s the thing about gerrymandering - it’s dangerous because you set up those razor thin margins to get the most seats possible, but what happens when there is a political landslide?

This is precisely why Texas has been going purple and outright at risk of turning blue in the last 10-15 years.

On the other hand - while It’s likely going to be a total shellacking of Repugs, this regime hasn’t shown a willingness to accept defeat and the “opposition” party hasn’t really shown a willingness to hold them to account for their crimes and flagrant disregard for the law. The future is very uncertain, and I’m not convinced at all that it’s possible to vote our way out of this mess.

[–] cattywampas@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago

It's also exactly why Kentucky isn't redistricting. They don't want to try to get one more district and end up losing two.

[–] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 10 points 4 days ago

There could be some very strange results, I hope they don't come crying about election fraud if they lose even more seats then they expect.

[–] TRBoom@lemmy.zip 4 points 3 days ago

I’ve been thinking about this as well.

The added trouble for them is they’re doing all of this 6 years after a census. Good hard data that they’ve used to get those razor thin (but safe) margins just isn’t available.

[–] BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.cafe 14 points 3 days ago

Stop listening to MAGA celebrations of total victory, they are ALWAYS bluffing.

This redistricting nonsense could be a problem in a normal time, but not in a time when Trump is so deeply underwater.

For instance, Tennessee only had a single Democratic district, and they just got rid of it. But all those Democratic votes didn't disappear, they just got moved into three strong Republican districts. Or at least they were strong Republican districts, with extremely low Democratic representation in the 10% range. Now those districts are more like 30% Democratic, and with Dems winning or coming close in Republicans districts with 20+ points swings, it is possible that they traded one winning Democratic district, for 3 losing Republican districts.

It might have worked in a normal election, but not in a bloodbath election like this one is going to be. They may have kept a couple of seats, but they won't keep the entire House. It's likely the Dems will STILL take the House majority, AND be motivated to redistrict every Blue state before 2028, and increase their lead in both chambers, with a Democratic President.

And gerrymandering doesn't affect the Senate race at all.

[–] cattywampas@lemmy.world 11 points 3 days ago

Redistricting will net them 8 to 12 seats if all those hold up AND if all those districts vote R.

The average number of seats that an opposition party flips during midterms is 27. The Republicans currently have a 218-215 majority in the House.

So in an average year, these extra seats wouldn't be enough to overcome the expected flip. That's to say nothing of how much the Democrats have been over performing since 2024.

[–] BlameTheAntifa@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago

redistricting

No. Open fascist corruption and disenfranchisement.

[–] adespoton@lemmy.ca 8 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Redistricting only works if voter turnout lines up with projections at time of redistricting and people don’t move districts in significant volumes.

If something happens that convinces non-voters to show up, redistricting can actually work AGAINST the party in power.

[–] 4am@lemmy.zip 2 points 3 days ago

We’d better goddamn hope it happens because it’s not looking like we’re gonna get more chances to peacefully salvage what’s left

[–] KulunkelBoom@lemmus.org 7 points 3 days ago

Outright stealing the elections could put them over the top too.

[–] mavu@discuss.tchncs.de 3 points 4 days ago

"could help prop them up"..

That might be the whole point of the redistricting? maybe? ...

[–] Prove_your_argument@piefed.social 1 points 3 days ago

The policies can’t last. They are just trying to hold on to two more years before their own base revolts.

Feels like everything is holding together by a thread.

[–] BetaBlake@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

If people vote it will be okay