Technology

Who could have possibly seen this coming?!

I think they may have located a more extreme, even dumber business category than "too big to fail": "too big to bail out".

Basically, the AI lab told backers to expect revenues approaching $50 billion — far shorter than the explosive $70 billion number reported previously.

Though that $70 billion figure was also based on leaked investor memos, OpenAI wasn’t in any hurry to deny it, digging itself into a $20 billion hole.

So they told investors they'd make $70b and now they're bringing down the forecast to $50b . $50b is still insane, that's more revenue then any other software company except Microsoft (and probably anthropic), next closest is Salesforce with $41b, and Salesforce built that revenue over decades. Open AI finished 2025 with $13b in revenue, that's nearly 4x growth in a year on more then 10 billion in revenue, that has never been done before.

Idk if this is a sign of a bubble collapsing just because it's record setting growth and revenue aren't as explosive as they initially said. It is still very much explosive, but more a fission bomb then an h bomb. It seems the market agrees, Nvidia is down ~1% on this news, but still up 5% on this month and 20% yoy.

Sounds like it's almost bailout time again.

Burst, baby, burst!

Even if demand is there, as long as a user paying €200 / mo is costing the business €4,000 / mo then it’s not financially sustainable. (Along with the even worse ways it’s not sustainable)

Edit: see second comment below from partydisc explaining why the even the lower figure wasn’t well calculated.

The $20B difference is based on an accounting fraud. $50B vs $70B is like if GM would count the total of what buyers pay for cars ($70B) instead of their real revenue ($50B) of what their dealers pay them. Monumental fraudster BS came out overnight to resume the bubble frenzy though.

This article conveniently ignores the fact that Anthropic is reporting a second profitable quarter to investors.

Let it pop! Let it pop! No bailouts for billionaires. Just let the fucking system collapse. I’ll happily go back to a trade a barter system of some kind.