China has been taking steps to keep it's AI industry in check. They'll be fine. Their bubble pop is essentially a market adjustment. We all just get bent out of shape because of how big these numbers have gotten over the last few decades. The important thing is that the Chinese government took steps to protect it's other sectors which is why we likely saw their bubble pop before ours.
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It's less that they protect companies, and more that they don't care when they end.
That protects the industry.
Compared to America where specific companies lobby to limit competition, and end up just charging more for shitty products.
It's pretty much why we keep losing.
Because if the big companies never end, they buy up everyone else. Too big to fail means it's too big to even exist.
What? Their real estate is popping too. Could you be more specific as to what "steps to protect its other sectors" means?
I can't.
I believe what I said, but I'm not following the Chinese market in any serious way. One of my comment edits was to disclose that but I choose the more basic statement. I'm fully willing to be wrong when presented with data. I felt that removing my own hedge allowed comments like yours to more directly challenge the statement.
I'm in the middle of studying for a mid term. I don't want to use the energy to dig into it. I got my stance mostly from articles I've read in passing on how they have regulated their AI market to protect workers and manage circular investing. It could easily have been propaganda.
Refreshingly honest social media comment!
Good luck on your mid term. no /s
They don’t have a handful of companies financing each other in a giant game of venture-capital-human centipede that will topple the entire market when it goes belly up.
That's not what steps they've taken. I'd like to know what they've done.
This is an odd distinction to draw. What do you mean by done in this case?
The CPC much more closely controls their internal markets so the fact that companies are not doing the whole "circular investment" game is a direct result of policy decisions made by the CPC rather than companies in China just sort of "deciding" not to hop on the band wagon.
The CPC didn't send a task force to fight the money demons but they did implement policy that led to this state of affairs, which is what they're supposed to do.
their real estates have been "popping" for several years now. i still remember finance bros making videos titled "is china going to collapse in 30 days??!?!!?" a couple of years ago.
in reality it's just the government managing risk and taper speculation in the real estate market.
It looks like every news article about China's real estate says their prices are lowering continuously. That means in America that their loans would be under water. Honest question, isn't that the case for China too?
And the honest answer is: it's complicated.
First thing, property prices going down is not necessarily a bad thing, but people don't usually see it that way.
Simple truth: if you own a house, you would want house prices to go up, forever. This is true anywhere on Earth, and it's true in China too. But as a society, you can't allow house prices to go up forever. Because that means getting onto the housing ladder becomes harder and harder, young people would have to rent forever. Their income thus funneled into the property owning class, inequality goes up, stability goes down, and so on. Everyone can see the problem, but not all governments can do something about it. This is where China, an oppressive authoritarian government, has its advantage. They doesn't have to worry about if the voters are going to elect them again. So they are afford to make some people unhappy.
But it's not that simple actually, lowering property prices is almost uniquely bad for China. Because property is universally seen as the vehicle to preserve wealth in China. In fact a majority of China's household wealth is stored in the property market [1]. Another compounding factor: China has a large pre-sale housing system. In other words, people are borrowing money to buy houses that aren't even built yet, and that accounts for 90% (!!) of house sales [2]. I'm sure you can imagine, when property prices go down in this kind of system, people are gonna get really really mad. In fact people got so mad they got onto the street! If you know anything about China, you know how big of a deal this is. This sort of thing just doesn't happen in China. Last time this happened, people died and that particular event even became a freaking internet meme.
And all that plus the fact property developers in China are often choose to take a lot of risk and are highly leveraged 3. This is almost reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis, yet a catastrophe similar to the 2008 crash hasn't hit. Why? Because China's government has a much stronger hold of the economy, and they are much more willing to intervene than any western capitalist country. Being authoritarian also helps. They have a lot more policy lever they can pull, so they can allow the property prices to gradually fall, without taking the entire economy with it. Which is kind of unimaginable in the US.
This is not to say their system is perfect - and that's without talking about their horrible human rights records. Their policy makers are human too, and make mistake. Their stock market will rise and fall, the point is you shouldn't try to fit what happens in China into the typical western economy boom-and-bust narrative. That's not how it works in China.
[1]: The portfolio of the average household in China is more highly concentrated in real estate than elsewhere. For instance, 62 percent of its assets are in real estate, compared with 38 percent in Japan and 28 percent in the United States. (2020) Source
[2]: Developers have responded to restrictions on accessing other sources of funds by increasing their use of presale funding (Graph 5). While presales have long accounted for the bulk of new residential property sales in China, their share has increased from around 80 per cent to almost 90 per cent since 2016. (2020) Source
Simple truth: if you own a house, you would want house prices to go up, forever.
Hardly. I need a house. If my house price crashes to $5, I'll be able to get a much nicer one for $10. Just $5 extra investment.
The problem comes when you've borrowed against the house at the higher price. Negative equity is no joke, but I don't care what my house is worth otherwise. It's value is completely unavailable to me.
you can’t allow house prices to go up forever. Because that means getting onto the housing ladder becomes harder and harder, young people would have to rent forever. Their income thus funneled into the property owning class, inequality goes up, stability goes down, and so on. Everyone can see the problem, but not all governments can do something about it.
Here in hyper-capitalist dystopia, our property owning class is placing their bets on being able to deter that 'stability goes down' part with all-pervasive surveillance and authoritarianism.
A lot of people in the comments conflating "AI bubble burst" with "AI has disappeared completely", and saying it's not happening because AI still exists there.
When the dot com bust happened, the internet didn't just disappear overnight, it just shrunk into something more reasonable. I feel like this is the same.
Yeah, to me it kinda seems inevitable that the AI bubble will pop. Because AI companies are having such a hard time making a profit selling their AI. The tech that they developed will still exist, and self-hosted models will definitely still exist. But the glut of AI datacentres and the price gouging on RAM and GPUs that they cause, cannot possibly last indefinitely.
Oh please let me be able to afford to upgrade my PC in the next 2 years
Same vibe as "if global warming is real how come it was cold at my house this morning?"
AI/LLMs will still be around, they just wont be the end all be all some people have been hyping it as
The internet now is bigger than the internet pre dot com burst, though, right?
Sure, but there was still a bubble and it burst.
This is how they win: everyone's gonna pop, but their iron fist over the banks will prevent an absolute bust.
We haven't learned from fanny-mae and we're gonna get soundly fucked.
Ohh they know whats coming, they just don’t care because they are in the big boy club, and we aren’t. It’ll be another firesale where private equity thats in the know will pick up devalued assets on the cheap
Boy, it seem's China's beating the USA at all aspects of AI.
/rimshot
You joke, but there’s a few communities on Lemmy that REALLY love China.
I'm aware. Given the current state of the USA, I understand the willingness to overlook China's imperfections.
At a certain point, the old tribalistic feuding needs to give way to responsible globalized stewardship of the planets finite resources. To be civilized it's to be scientific; to be scientific requires accepting certain realities about our world.
I mean, this isn’t true from my perspective. All the Chinese LLM labs are still developing full steam ahead. Model/architectures are getting updated so quickly it’s a meme amongst inference framework devs, because they can’t even support one model before the next one is already out.
…They’ve always been thrifty, though. The difference is they don’t need a trillion dollar bubble to fund their modest, more sustainable dev/inference costs.
There's been a lot of bounces where the US stock market "lost" trillions then came back to its original point and more, see the election and March of 2025 and 2026
Could mean something could mean nothing, only time will really tell
No new news. Deepseek is still raising billions in funding rounds.
And now everything will go back to normal and people in China will stop using AI.
Right?