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The entire US economy right now is 7 companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other, but it's totally not a bubble according to grampa Powell.
And all of our retirement accounts are tied to this not-a-bubble
this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2025
146 points (96.8% liked)
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Speak for yourself, money bags
I've got enough in there to buy a used car, which I guess is my retirement residence at this point 🤷♀️
My first thought was… boy I wish I had a retirement account to lose
It used to be retirement but now its my push off losing my shelter funds.
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Of course there's earnings. It's just you don't know the company that's making money. It goes to another market so you wouldn't have seen it before.
Well, there's earnings, from Nvidia.
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but they actually have earnings.
Of course they have. But the spendings are bigger.
Microsoft, Nvidia, AMD, Oracle and Intel are all profitable. They might not be worth as much, but still.
Those are all shovel sellers. People stop buying shovels when the gold rush goes bust.
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some people made money during the gold rush selling shovels and eggs.
Oh, i didn't think of hardware suppliers.
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It is Palantir. I bet they are doing evil shit. The way Israel targeted public option and media to navigate what should have been quickly shut down by overwhelming public sentiment, was very abnormal from the abstract overview perspective.
Knowing all the stuff I have seen messing with my offline AI server on my hardware over the last two years, the amount of data scraped and collected by google for everyone on the internet should be more than enough to actively manipulate everyone both logically and emotionally. There is enormous political capital in that manipulative power.
We are experiencing the equivalent of the invention of the nuclear bomb for propaganda. Artificial agents that can manipulate people in ways we won't understand fully for decades. We are fighting for the human mind right now and no one is talking about it except j4k3.
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I wonder how much Powell invested in the Ai bubble to say that. Dotcoms and subprimes had revenue too during their bubbles.
These people are too big to fail. They will torch civilization, and this planet, to hold onto what they have.
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Are the earrings in the room with us now?
Hmm, when people like Powell start explaining that it's not a bubble, I hear that it's going to pop sooner rather than later. Especially when he cites "trust me, bro" as evidence.
and coincidentally at the same times GATES AND altman said the same thing about it busting.
The name of the crime that graph illustrates is "Round Tripping".
Pump a group of stocks by moving money in circles and if you're a short sighted fool you do this several times with leverage on leverage.
I believe all pyramid schemes have earnings. The problem is that the bag has so far been shown to be pretty empty and somebody is going to be left holding it.
Ooh I saw the answer to that today. It’s the suckers who buy into the OpenAI $1 trillion dollar IPO
One trillion usd ipo? If that's not a scam I've never heard of scams.
That's the exact type of thing you hear near the peak of a bubble.
These fools are lying so often and obviously that they are starting to finally lose their base. They can't even keep their own lies straight.
We call this the "breathing in one's own farts to admire them" stage
Pretty sure Pets.com had earnings, too.
Nah this is a legit shell game I swear.
Sure, these companies have earnings, but then they go burn all of it plus more on training and inference and data centers and whatever the fuck else. It's not profitable and it never will be. And yet they're willing to bankrupt the country on this egregore that Sam Altman and his ilk have created.
It's worse than that. The revenue of all except for NVIDIA (which supplies the graphics chips) is by selling subsidized products. It's the classic Silicon Valley model of "growth at any cost" and then enshittifying; except the product they're offering is intolerably expensive.
The AI products are not just losing money as a corporation; They're losing money on making their revenue. Most will not pay $200 for a month of chatbot interactions. Most will not pay $200 to generate a handful of sloptok videos. The number of users of these AI programs is so high because the product is sold at a loss -- and is being shoved in everyone's face, all the time. It's free/cheap entertainment for lonely and bored people. Once it hits their wallet, those commonfolk are gone.
Yup, the only real winner here is Nvidia, for selling the shovels for the gold rush. All the "AI" companies are just spending money to lose money. But I guarantee that - somehow - all of us commonfolk will be left holding the bag, not Clammy Sammy Altman.
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Those things are not mutually exclusive, JP!
I mean, if you add enough circles to your graph, it just shows how the entire economy works. What's the cutoff point where it's an obvious bubble and when it is just normal economics in motion?
The cutoff point is, kind of definitionally, when the circles include economic industries that actually provide needs / major tax revenue etc.
That is the point. For insane investment, these industries are not providing needs, and they're not providing particularly useful commodities, they're generally taking basically as much in subsidies as they're paying in taxes.
Currently we throw a shitton of resources in, we get meager usefulness out, and there's no concrete promise that massively useful resources will ever come out. That's.. what a bubble is. And that's why the graph illustrates it.
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The normal economy that makes sense would look like this:
Company A buys parts from Company B to make a product. Their money comes from selling the product. If As product sells for only 10% of it's cost, then A will soon fold and B loses a customer, but isn't otherwise affected.
What we have in the graph though is Company B, Nvidia, investing money in all it's customers, while those customers don't make money from their product at the same time. Like, this is unreasonable even if we assume AI eventually takes off (it won't), because most likely it will only be one of these many corps inventing the good AI and making money, while the others immediately die due to their product having become comparatively worthless. Nvidia would still be in the hole for a lot of money if that happens so I am not sure what they are thinking.
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If I have an overdraft of 10$ I am fucked by fees and fines immeidately. If OpenAI needs 100 billion dollars they just promise NVIDIA to buy some of their chips in a while and they get it fronted. This is all very normal.
How long can this possibly continue until someone blinks and wants to actually be left standing when the smoke clears? It would have to be NVIDIA I think, because they actually make something. Or are they already in so deep that they can't get out of the hole either?
Best I can do is print more money for a huge bailout that devalues the currency by 50%. Sorry you'll never save a decent amount of money because we steal it all.
Hear me out - nvidia knows it's a bubble, but it's a valuable bubble for them. They give some money to these companies that want to buy a ton of GPUs, they get to sell a bunch of GPUs right now and look super profitable while also killing the supply on GPUs, which keeps pushing the price of these things higher and higher. By the end of it, they will have conditioned the entire world to think that a low end GPU should cost $1000, and a high end one should cost $5000.
people were discussing this on reddit they said, the AI companies are hoping a retails(investors) sucker would be holding the bag, after they all cashed out.
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It’s a dome
Understanding the economics of it is beyond what I can reasonably know at this time but I did read that Ryan McBeth argued that the increasingly likely war involving China in 2027 or 2028 will become instant demand for AI services under military use.
yeah we really need that chatgpt for frantic soldiers to google "how do i not get blown up by 10000 drones" or "how to get fallout out of rain water" or "why are the chinese so much more fit? How do i do a situp"
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war involving China
Passive voice af btw it's going to be a war of western aggression and if you don't know that you don't have eyes or ears
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