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The entire US economy right now is 7 companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other, but it's totally not a bubble according to grampa Powell.
this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2025
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The normal economy that makes sense would look like this:
Company A buys parts from Company B to make a product. Their money comes from selling the product. If As product sells for only 10% of it's cost, then A will soon fold and B loses a customer, but isn't otherwise affected.
What we have in the graph though is Company B, Nvidia, investing money in all it's customers, while those customers don't make money from their product at the same time. Like, this is unreasonable even if we assume AI eventually takes off (it won't), because most likely it will only be one of these many corps inventing the good AI and making money, while the others immediately die due to their product having become comparatively worthless. Nvidia would still be in the hole for a lot of money if that happens so I am not sure what they are thinking.
AI will take off. It may not be in the form of the LLMs that the media likes to focus on, there's plenty of other models out there being built that are much better suited for their purposes than what many are trying to shoehorn LLMs into
This shit will stay too expensive to use in the mass market. Sure you can build some specialized app that does some obscure process really well, but that does not constitute a takeoff.
Ah yes, because history has shown that technology has NEVER gotten more efficient or cheaper over time...
"If we build the spruce goose 100 times larger, it will fly even better!"
It's a tool for certain specialized applications that is being scaled up to high heaven in the hope that a mass use case will materialize out of the aether. It will not. Not a single one of these models does 10% of what these companies claim they do. At least the Spruce Goose could actually fly somewhere and land reliably in the water.