wolfyvegan

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/33806396

A House hearing exposed sharp divisions over whether loosening environmental laws and expanding logging will protect communities from catastrophic fires. Scientists urged a shift toward investing in fire-resilient homes and landscapes.

Lawmakers from both parties agreed at a congressional hearing Tuesday that the federal government must act to address the growing threat of catastrophic wildfires, but they were sharply divided over how, and whether pending legislation known as the Fix Our Forests Act offers the right path forward.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/33772216

Chronic exposure to pollution from wildfires has been linked to tens of thousands of deaths annually in the United States, according to a new study.

The paper, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, found that from 2006 to 2020, long-term exposure to tiny particulates from wildfire smoke contributed to an average of 24,100 deaths a year in the lower 48 states.

“Cree el aldeano vanidoso que el mundo entero es su aldea, y con tal que él quede de alcalde, o le mortifique al rival que le quitó la novia, o le crezcan en la alcancía los ahorros, ya da por bueno el orden universal…”

-José Martí, Nuestra América

En apenas las primeras semanas del 2026, las acciones del presidente Trump han creado tumulto y desasosiego de una magnitud no vista en mucho tiempo en el continente americano. El secuestro del presidente Nicolás Maduro y de su esposa Cilia Flores en Venezuela violentó el derecho internacional tanto como el propio en Estados Unidos. Dicha incursión militar se llevó a cabo sin la autorización del Congreso (requisito según resolución vigente de poderes de guerra en dicho poder legislativo) y también en violación de la Carta de las Naciones Unidas.

El gobierno de Trump alegó que Maduro lidera una organizacion internacional de narcotraficantes con el colorido nombre Cartel de los Soles, entidad apócrifa cuyo nombre se inspiró en las medallas en forma de sol que los generales venezolanos portan en sus uniformes.

Dicho pretexto fue abandonado durante el inicio del proceso criminal por narcotráfico en contra de Maduro, cuando el Departamento de Justicia federal desistió de lo que algunos ven como un dudoso reclamo. Resulta que el Cartel de los Soles no es una organización como tal, sino un término coloquial acuñado por Estados Unidos para describir un grupo de líderes militares corruptos en el país suramericano.

De hecho, un análisis reciente de datos de trasiego de drogas de la oficina de Oficina de las Naciones Unidas contra la Droga y el Delito (UNODC en inglés) arrojó que Venezuela no contribuye la gran cosa a suplir cocaína ni fentanilo a Estados Unidos.

El objetivo en Venezuela nunca ha sido la democracia ni detener el trasiego de narcóticos

Eliminado el pretexto de que Maduro fue sacado de Venezuela por liderar una red de narcotráfico y dado el pequeño rol que juega Venezuela en el tráfico de drogas hacia Estados Unidos, el verdadero motivo tras la incursión ilegal y desestabilizante en Venezuela por parte de Trump queda claro: apoderarse de los vastos recursos de combustibles fósiles y recursos minerales de Venezuela.

Y para ello han revitalizado la larga historia del intervencionismo del Siglo XIX amparado en la Doctrina Monroe, a su vez inspirada por la ideología racista y supremacista del Destino Manifiesto. Ahora renombrada como la “Doctrina Donroe” (combinación del primer nombre de Trump con Monroe), regresa cual sortilegio para imbuir de ímpetu las renovadas ínfulas imperialistas del gobierno de Trump.

Un breve aparte histórico: la Doctrina Monroe supone que el hemisferio occidental es el área natural de influencia, donde por mandato divino según la ideología del Destino Manifiesto, Estados Unidos tiene el derecho absoluto de control e influencia, sin importar el resto de las naciones vecinas.

Dicho de otro modo: la Doctrina Monroe encarna la supremacía blanca del Destino Manifiesto en clara expresión de política exterior para el hemisferio. Y dicha doctrina se ha utilizado para justificar una incursión militar, secuestro, y el robo de yacimientos petrolíferos que no le pertenecen a Estados Unidos. Y para adelantar sus intereses geopolíticos, el gobierno de Trump busca controlar el petróleo venezolano para reducir la influencia de China y Rusia en América Latina tanto como para someter a la obediencia a aquellas naciones latinoamericanas que no se arrodillan ante los antojos de Trump.

America y Nuestra América: no es lo mismo, ni se escribe igual

La arrogancia hemisférica del supuesto exceptionalismo americano viene clavado en el término coloquial (por demás geográficamente incorrecto) para referirse a Estados Unidos: America (en inglés, sin acento). Esta toponimia encierra el rol de civilizador que Estados Unidos ha reservado para sí en el continente americano.

Una caricatura publicada en 1899 en la revista de política Puck comunica claramente dicha visión con sus fundamentos racistas. Los entonces territorios de Puerto Rico y las Filipinas—recién adquiridos—junto con Cuba y Hawai’i se muestran como mugrosos y grotescos niños bajo la tutela del Tío Sam, maestro con mirada amenazante e imponente. Los nuevos estados de Arizona, Alaska, California, Nuevo México y Texas aparecen como ejemplares y límpidos alumnos quienes estudiosamente leen sus textos sobre civilización. La escena queda completa con una ofensiva caracterización de un Afroamericano como el custodio de limpieza, un confundido alumno Indígena sentado en la parte posterior del aula quien trata pero no puede aprender el abecedario, y un alumno asiático (ataviado como un estereotípico Chinaman) con ganas de aprender pero excluido del salón de clases.

A pesar de que esta caricatura solo presente dos naciones caribeñas, comunica claramente el modo de pensar que forjó la política exterior estadounidense en América Latina en función de la seguridad nacional e intereses geopolíticos. Esta ideología regresa bajo el gobierno de Trump sin los pretextos de civilizar y democratizar presentados durante las intervenciones en Cuba, El Salvador, Chile, Guatemala y Nicaragua, por decir. La visión agresiva, egoísta e individualista del gobierno de Trump hacia la América Latina, expresada claramente por el secretario de estado Marco Rubio, “Este es NUESTRO hemisferio”, queda diametralmente opuesta a la visión panamericanista que emergió durante el Siglo XIX entre libre pensadores y líderes latinoamericanos. En las palabras del célebre héroe nacional cubano José Martí: Nuestra América.

School Begins (Empiezan las clases), caricatura política publicada en 1899 en la revista Puck, muestra el pensamiento racista y supremacista hacia los pueblos latinoamericanos y en el Pacífico. Fuente: Biblioteca del Congreso.

En la visión martiana de Nuestra América, las naciones del hemisferio occidental co-existirían en paz, priorizando la prosperidad social, económica y política tanto como el bienestar de todas las naciones, sin potencias hegemónicas (ni colonizadores europeos ni Estados Unidos) por encima de otras naciones.

¿Suena utópico e inalcanzable? Tal vez. Pero Martí, junto con millones de latinoamericanos, no se han equivocado al rechazar el paternalismo de la Doctrina Monroe.

Los líderes latinoamericanos no están pintados en la pared

Es posible una Nuestra América en base a la colaboración, cooperación y el diálogo. A esto le están apostando los líderes de las dos economías más grandes de América Latina—Claudia Sheinbaum en México y Luiz Inazio Lula da Silva en Brasil. En Colombia, Gustavo Petro ha condenado la incursión en Venezuela tanto como las amenazas personales de Trump en su contra. Mientras la prensa en Estados Unidos se enfoca en repetir las bravuconadas que salen de la boca de Trump, Sheinbaum y Lula se comportan con seriedad y urgen un retorno a la colaboración sin intervencionismo y con respeto a la soberanía e integridad territorial de las naciones latinoamericanas. Todo esto va de acuerdo con la larga trayectoria de ambos países en la no injerencia en los asuntos domésticos de otros países.

En respuesta a las amenazas tácitas tanto como explícitas de Trump contra México, Sheinbaum dijo recientemente: “[E]s necesario reafirmar que en México manda el pueblo y que somos un país libre, independiente y soberano. Cooperación, sí; subordinación e intervención, no”. Y Lula por su parte afirmó que el ataque s a su vecino Venezuela representa una “afrenta gravísima a la soberanía de Venezuela”.

La guerra petrolera y el intervencionismo desestabilizan la región y el clima global

La gran diferencia hoy día en comparación con los tiempos de Martí es que el uso de la Doctrina Monroe y otras expresiones del mollero global de Estados Unidos están motivadas por el implacable deseo de controlar las fuentes de combustible fósiles, elementos de tierras raras, y otros recursos para perpetuar el capitalismo fósil.

Como recién dijo mi colega Kathy Muley, apostarle a la industria de combustibles fósiles es una mala apuesta por muchas razones. Añadir más petróleo a un mercado global de por sí saturado no rendirá ganancias en el corto plazo, empeoraría las vidas de los venezolanos, afectaría de manera negativa el bolsillo de los consumidores en Estados Unidos, y perjudicaría la ya precaria situación del sistema climático global. El petróleo venezolano extrapesado es muy viscoso, y requiere mucha energía para extraerlo a la superficie, lo cual aumentaría las emisiones solamente para su extracción y procesamiento. Millones de venezolanos han sido desplazados por la crisis social, económica y climática en su país. Si la situación en Venezuela empeora debido a un desastre climático o a una incursión a gran escala por parte de Estados Unidos, pudiera desatar un alza en el desplazamiento a países de la región como Perú, México y Colombia quienes ya han recibido millones de venezolanos.

La intervención en Venezuela y el secuestro de Maduro son también patadas de ahogado de un gobierno en Estados Unidos que desesperadamente busca desviar la atención de sus crisis domésticas —el desastre creado por el desmantelamiento de la fuerza laboral y funciones del gobierno federal, los archivos Epstein, el acceso a servicios de cuidado de la salud, el aumento vertiginoso en el costo de vida, y el endurecimiento de las redadas anti-inmigrantes y la represión política).

Estados Unidos no está por encima de las leyes internacionales ni nacionales

Al margen de las renovadas aspiraciones imperiales de Estados Unidos, y ahora con la amenaza de anexión a Groenlandia en adición a la incursión en Venezuela, vivimos en un mundo de leyes internacionales y nacionales. En Estados Unidos, el Congreso y todos los sectores de la sociedad civil deben exigir el retorno a un estado de derecho doméstico e internacional respecto a la integridad territorial de todos los países del hemisferio occidental. Repartirse el hemisferio según los intereses geopolíticos del gobierno de Trump y sus amigos en la industria de los combustibles fósiles deja fuera a los casi mil millones de habitantes que componen el resto de los países del hemisferio. Las acciones de Estados Unidos han puesto al planeta en una trayectoria que acelera el calentamiento global, aunada por conflictos regionales y globales para controlar el recurso fósil. Un mundo distinto que no esté fundamentado en el asqueroso supuesto del gobierno de Trump de la ley del más fuerte es posible.

“The pompous villager thinks his hometown is the whole world. As long as he can stay on as mayor, humiliate the rival who stole his sweetheart, and watch his nest egg grow in its strongbox, he believes the universe is in good order.…”

“Cree el aldeano vanidoso que el mundo entero es su aldea, y con tal que él quede de alcalde, o le mortifique al rival que le quitó la novia, o le crezcan en la alcancía los ahorros, ya da por bueno el orden universal….”

–José Martí, Nuestra América, 1891

In the first few weeks of 2026, President Trump’s actions have thrown the Western Hemisphere into turmoil and dangerous uncertainty on a scale not seen for a long time. The abduction of both President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Venezuela violated domestic and international laws: The military incursion was carried out without Congress’ knowledge or approval as required by the War Powers Resolution, and in violation of the United Nations’ charter and the core principles of the Organization of American States.

The Trump administration claimed that President Maduro is the leader of an international drug trafficking ring with the colorful name Cartel de los Soles, a made-up organization. Its name was inspired by the sun-shaped medals that Venezuelan generals wear in their uniforms. The pretense was recently dropped during the initial indictment of Maduro on drug trafficking charges, as the US Department of Justice backed off from what was long thought to be a dubious claim—turns out the Cartel de los Soles is not an actual organization, but a slang term for what the United States says are corrupt military leaders in the South American country. In fact, an analysis of drug trade data from the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) found that Venezuela is not a prominent supplier of cocaine or fentanyl to the United States.

The goal in Venezuela was never democracy or stopping the narcotics trade

With the pretense gone of removing President Maduro for leading a drug trafficking organization, and Venezuela’s role proven very small in exporting narcotics to the United States, the real motivation behind the Trump administration’s illegal and destabilizing incursion and abduction quickly became clear. Seizing the vast fossil fuel and mineral resources of Venezuela is the naked and unabashed goal of President Trump and the fossil fuel industry that supports him.

And perhaps in a nod to MAGA nostalgia, the administration has harkened to a relic from the 19th century: the Monroe Doctrine, a claim making a useful comeback for the Trump administration’s re-energized imperial ambitions. Many observers have begun calling the new US approach “the Donroe Doctrine”—a term that appeared on a January cover of The New York Post—a Trumpian twist on a 19th-century idea.

Quick history lesson: The Monroe Doctrine posits the Western Hemisphere as the natural area of the globe where the United States is entitled (by divine right according to the long-standing influential ideology of Manifest Destiny) to exert complete control and influence, other nations be damned.

Said another way: The Monroe Doctrine is the white supremacy of Manifest Destiny turned into hemispherical foreign policy. And in our current global context, that doctrine is now being used to justify an incursion, a kidnapping, and the theft of oil resources that do not belong to the United States. What the administration isn’t saying is that control over Venezuela’s government and oil also seeks to reduce the rising influence of China and Russia in Latin America, and to curb Latin American administrations that do not bow down to the president’s designs.

America and Nuestra América are not the same thing

The hemispherical arrogance of American exceptionalism is embedded even in that colloquial and geographically inaccurate euphemism for the United States: America. This exercise in naming is profoundly political and encapsulates the role of civilizer that the United States has historically reserved for itself in the continent.

An 1899 cartoon in the political commentary magazine Puck visually summarizes this view in very offensive and racist ways. The then newly acquired territories of the Philippines and Puerto Rico, plus Cuba and Hawaiʻi are depicted as unkempt and grotesque adult-faced children under the tutelage of a menacing and imposing teacher—Uncle Sam. The recently-acquired states or territories (Arizona, Alaska, California, New Mexico, and Texas) are depicted as white schoolchildren diligently reading their lessons in civilization. The scene is completed with offensive representations of African Americans as the janitorial help, a confused Native American student sitting in the back trying and failing to learn his ABCs, and an Asian student in the “Chinaman” racist trope, outside the classroom, completely excluded from learning.

Though this cartoon contains only two Caribbean nations, it conveys the thinking that shaped US foreign policy in Latin America in the name of US national security and geopolitical interests over three centuries. And that thinking has returned under the Trump administration, but without the civilizing nor spreading democracy pretenses of past interventions in Cuba, El Salvador, Chile, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, to name a few. The Trump administration’s self-serving, aggressive, and individualistic vision for Latin America—as expressed directly by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, “This is OUR hemisphere,” immediately after the Venezuela incursion—could not be further from the pan-Americanist vision that emerged in the 19th century among Latin American leaders and thinkers of a liberated continent, in the words of the great Cuban national hero José Martí: Nuestra América.

“School Begins,” a political cartoon published in 1899 in the magazine Puck, illustrated the prevailing racist and supremacist thinking in the United States regarding people of color in the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific. Source: Library of Congress.

In Martí’s vision of Nuestra América, nuestra or “our” does not mean the United States, but rather refers to all the nations of the Western Hemisphere that would co-exist in peace, prioritizing the social, economic, political prosperity, and well-being of all, without hegemonic powers (at that time he meant neither European colonizers nor the United States) ruling over other nations.

Sounds utopian, unattainable, pie-in-the-sky? Maybe. But he, along with millions of Latin Americans for centuries, have not been wrong to push back on the inherent paternalism of the Monroe Doctrine.

Latin American leaders are not background characters

A more equitable Nuestra América based on collaboration, cooperation, and dialogue is possible. This is what the leaders of the two largest Latin American economies—Claudia Sheinbaum in México and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brasil, are advocating for. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has rejected both the Venezuela incursion and President Trump’s threats against Colombia and Petro himself. While most US media frames issues by repeating the latest quote-worthy braggadocio to come from the president’s mouth, Sheinbaum and Lula have been the adults in the room, urging a return to non-interventionist collaboration and dialogue in a context of respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Latin American nations. This is in line with both countries’ longstanding principles of non-intervention in other countries’ domestic affairs.

In response to the tacit or explicit threats that Trump has issued against México, Sheinbaum recently declared: “It is necessary to reaffirm that in México the people rule, and that we are a free and sovereign country—cooperation, yes; subordination and intervention, no.” And Lula said of the raid in Venezuela: “These acts represent a grave affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty and yet another extremely dangerous precedent for the entire international community.”

Oil wars and interventionism are bad for regional stability and the global climate

What’s different today compared to Martí’s time is that the United States’ current interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine and other expressions of US global power are driven by its unrelenting desire for fossil fuel capitalism and control of fossil fuel deposits, rare earth minerals, and other resources.

But as my colleague Kathy Mulvey just wrote, betting on Big Oil is a losing proposition, as adding more oil to an oversupplied global market will not be profitable in the short term, will worsen the lives of Venezuelans, hurt the bottom line of US taxpayers, and be detrimental to an already unstable global climate. Venezuela’s “extra heavy” oil requires a lot of energy to heat it up and bring it to the surface, increasing the potential for high emissions just from extraction and processing. In addition, millions of Venezuelans already have been displaced by the social, economic, and climate crises in their country. If conditions there worsen due to a climate disaster or a full-blown military incursion by the United States it could result in an increase in displacement to neighboring countries such as Perú, México and Colombia which have already absorbed millions of displaced Venezuelans.

The intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of Maduro also must be seen as a dangerously desperate attempt by an unsustainable administration to deflect attention from its internal crises (e.g., dismantlement of the federal government, Epstein, healthcare, cost-of-living, federal immigration crackdowns, and political repression at home).

The United States is not above international or domestic laws

Regardless of the United States’ brazenly renewed imperial ambitions—now with the added threat of annexation to Greenland in addition to the Venezuela incursion—we live in a world of international and domestic laws. In the United States, Congress and all sectors of society need to demand a return to the domestic and international rule of law regarding the territorial integrity of all countries in the Western Hemisphere. A narrowly-defined hemisphere in the service of the geopolitical interests of the Trump administration and its fossil fuel allies leaves out nearly one billion people who live outside of the United States. And the choices made by the United States have put the planet on a path dependent on accelerating global warming and the global and regional wars for control of those resources.

A different world, not based on the Trump administration’s repulsive notion that might is right, is possible.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/33431921

The killing of Alex Pretti, and the immediate lies and propaganda about his death from President Trump and his cronies, offer another dangerous example of how authoritarianism threatens our democracy. The administration immediately blamed the victim—a nurse who worked at a VA hospital—attempting to gaslight the public into not believing their own eyes. This is a clear hallmark of authoritarianism. The president and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have tried to wrongly frame Pretti, prior shooting victim Renee Good, and others as domestic terrorists, because they dared challenge the Trump administration’s illegal and immoral actions.

As I have written elsewhere, authoritarianism in today’s world comes about by chipping away at democracy, piece by piece. We are witnessing state-perpetuated violence and the rapid erosion of democratic norms that put all of our families at risk. Consolidation of executive power, with acquiescence of Congress and the highly partisan Supreme Court, are serious warnings of authoritarianism in the United States. But we know we can defeat authoritarianism, and history provides powerful lessons for the special role that scientists can and must play to defend democracy.

Scientists play a part in civil society

The vast majority of Americans—77%—trust scientists to act in the public’s best interests, according to a poll just released in January 2026. Scientists as a group have higher levels of public confidence than many other groups, including business leaders and elected officials. We must also recognize that democracy is an enabling environment for science, which is premised on an unfettered search for truth. The attacks on science in the past year under the administration’s funding cuts for lifesaving research slashed tens of thousands of scientific jobs, used fear and intimidation to stop scientists from speaking to the public, extorted universities, and ignored the best available evidence for policy making. The Trump administration has even ordered USDA scientists to investigate their international collaborators. This is the chipping away that threatens not only science, but democracy. Scientists cannot keep our heads down. We must use the trust the public has placed in us to help protect our neighbors, our communities, and our country.

These tactics below are simple, no-nonsense actions proven to defend against authoritarianism. But to be effective, you must start. Immediately. Apathy and despair are powerful weapons of authoritarianism, because they allow silence, fear and resignation to thrive. Courage—the triumph over fear—will help us defend democracy.

1. Speak out, fight propaganda

When democratic norms are threatened, we must speak out. Challenge authoritarian rhetoric in your own social circles. Learn to speak out against the dehumanization used by President Trump and his cronies as they seek to divide “us” and “them.” If you are able, write an op ed, engage with media, make your voice public. Those of us opposing the Trump administration’s authoritarianism are actually a majority. Normalize speaking out against state-sponsored violence and propaganda. Do not wait for them to come for you.

2. Show up, build community

For those of us able to do so, it’s time to use and protect the public square. Learn how to practice nonviolent resistance and show up to rallies, marches, vigils, meetings, and more. We are most powerful when we work in coalition with others. Use a toolkit to find and work with others or start a local rapid response network. Build community by connecting with groups already organizing, like faith groups, schools, local nonprofits, veterans groups, and unions. Push the scientific and professional societies you’re part of to publicly challenge the rising authoritarianism: urge conference organizers to include themes on authoritarianism and democracy, support independent science initiatives, and fight for scientific integrity.

3. Hold elected leaders accountable

Holding elected leaders accountable is a critical feature of democracy. Those leaders work for us, not for a party, president, or ideology. While Congress has played a key role in allowing President Trump’s authoritarian tactics, demanding accountability is the path back to democracy. To stop further consolidation of power, we must fight for the rule of law. Call your elected leaders, from local to state to federal, as it is proven to make an impact. Use the Ballotpedia tool to identify your elected leaders and their contact information. Use a toolkit to help you advocate effectively. Learn to write a sign-on letter. Share your story of how you have been personally impacted. Attend a town hall or local meeting. Remind your elected leaders that their power is derived from you, the public.

4. Defend elections now

Authoritarians seek to corrupt elections by undermining the norms, institutions and minority rights critical to a true electoral democracy. They tilt the rules in their favor through tactics like gerrymandering; they suppress votes through restrictive voter laws; and, historically, the worst regimes have tried to deter voting and civic participation through fear and intimidation, including the use of military forces on neighborhood streets.

In the wake of the killing of Alex Pretti, US Attorney General Pam Bondi demanded the Governor of Minnesota turn over voter rolls, to which the federal government has no Constitutional right, before the federal government would reduce the presence of immigration agents in Minneapolis—directly connecting the intimidation of Minnesotans with the administration’s effort to control and manipulate elections.

To safeguard elections you can volunteer to become a poll worker, engage your community on issues and candidates through events, or support get out the vote efforts. Learn and train others to fight election disinformation—deliberately false information about voting, election security, election outcomes and more meant to change voter behavior. States hold the key to protecting election systems and structure, so hold your local leaders accountable.

5. Provide mutual aid for others

Mutual aid is an act of resistance that fights fear and builds solidarity. Mutual aid is about neighbors helping each other by exchanging material resources and services, such as delivering groceries to folks who cannot safely leave their house. Mutual aid turns networks of care into networks of power and reduces dependence on coercive institutions. Talk to neighbors, faith groups, and schools to see if there are immediate needs. Use the mutual aid hub or check local social media to find ways you can support your own community. Learn more and share with others about the benefits of mutual aid, or go deeper and learn how to get involved with mutual aid organizing.

Resistance is an act of hope

Scholars who have studied authoritarianism around the world note the gravest danger is not repression but complacency. President Trump and his cronies will continue to use fear and intimidation, and we must guard against exhaustion and resignation. Now is the time for scientists to step forward: to speak publicly against state-sponsored violence, to stand up for evidence-based policy, to advocate for institutions and norms that protect scientific integrity, and to engage your communities in the shared work of defending democracy.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/32275724

Wildfire smoke is an emerging nationwide crisis for the United States. Supercharged by climate change, blazes are swelling into monsters that consume vast landscapes and entire towns. A growing body of evidence reveals that these conflagrations are killing far more people than previously known, as smoke travels hundreds or even thousands of miles, aggravating conditions like asthma and heart disease. One study, for instance, estimated that January’s infernos in Los Angeles didn’t kill 30 people, as the official tally reckons, but 440 or more once you factor in the smoke. Another recent study estimated that wildfire haze already kills 40,000 Americans a year, which could increase to 71,000 by 2050.

Two additional studies published in December paint an even grimmer picture of the crisis in the U.S. and elsewhere. The first finds that emissions of greenhouse gases and airborne particles from wildfires globally may be 70 percent higher than once believed. The second finds that Canada’s wildfires in 2023 significantly worsened childhood asthma across the border in Vermont. Taken together, they illustrate the desperate need to protect public health from the growing threat of wildfire smoke, like better monitoring air quality with networks of sensors.

The emissions study isn’t an indictment of previous estimates, but a revision of them based on new data. Satellites have spied on wildfires for decades, though in a somewhat limited way — they break up the landscape into squares measuring 500 by 500 meters, or about 1,600 by 1,600 feet. If a wildfire doesn’t fully fill that space, it’s not counted. This new study increases that resolution to 20 by 20 meters (roughly 66 feet by 66 feet) in several key fire regions, meaning it can capture multitudes of smaller fires.

Individually, tinier blazes are not producing as much smoke as the massive conflagrations that are leveling cities in the American West. But “they add up, and add up big time,” said Guido van der Werf, a wildfire researcher at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands and lead author of the paper. “They basically double the amount of burned area we have globally.”

With the 500-meter satellite data, the previous estimate was around 400 million hectares charred each year. Adding the small fires bumps that up to 800 million hectares, roughly the size of Australia. In some parts of the world, like Europe and Southeast Asia, burned area triples or even quadruples with this improved resolution. While scientists used to think annual wildfire emissions were around 2 gigatons of carbon, or about a fifth of what humanity produces from burning fossil fuels, that’s now more like 3.4 gigatons with this new estimate.

The type of fire makes a huge difference in the emissions, too. A forest fire has a large amount of biomass to burn — brushes, grasses, trees, sometimes even part of the soil — and turn into carbon dioxide and methane and particulate matter, but a grass fire on a prairie has much less. Blazes also burn at dramatically different rates: Flames can race quickly through woodland, but carbon-rich ground known as peat can smolder for days or weeks. Peat fires are so persistent, in fact, that when they ignite in the Arctic, they can remain hidden as snow falls, then pop up again as temperatures rise and everything melts. Scientists call them zombie fires. “It really matters where you’re burning and also how intense the fire can become,” van der Werf said.

But why would a fire stay small, when we’ve seen in recent years just how massive and destructive these blazes can get? It’s partly due to fragmentation of the landscape: Roads can prevent them from spreading, and firefighters stop them from reaching cities. And in general, a long history of fire suppression means they’re often quickly extinguished. (Ironically this has also helped create some monsters, because vegetation builds up across the landscape, ready to burn. This shakes up the natural order of things, in which low-intensity fires from lightning strikes have cleared dead brush, resetting an ecosystem for new growth. Which is why Indigenous tribes have long done prescribed burns.) Farmers, too, burn their waste biomass and obviously prevent the flames from getting out of hand.

Whereas in remote areas, like boreal forests in the far north, lightning strikes typically ignite fires, the study finds that populated regions produce a lot of smaller fires. In general, the more people dotting the landscape, the more sources of ignition: cigarette butts, electrical equipment producing sparks, even chains dragging from trucks.

Yes, these smaller fires are less destructive than the behemoths, but they can still be catastrophic in a more indirect way, by pouring smoke into populated areas. “Those small fires are not the ones that cause the most problems,” van der Werf said. “But of course they’re more frequent, close to places where people live, and that also has a health impact.”

That is why the second study on asthma is so alarming. Researchers compared the extremely smoky year of 2023 in Vermont to 2022 and 2024, when skies were clearer. They were interested in PM 2.5, or particulate matter smaller than 2.5 millionths of a meter, from wildfire smoke pouring in from Quebec, Canada. “That can be especially challenging to dispel from lungs, and especially irritating to those airways,” said Anna Maassel, a doctoral student at the University of Vermont and lead author of the study. “There is research that shows that exposure to wildfire smoke can have much longer-term impacts, including development of asthma, especially for early exposure as a child.”

This study, though, looked at the exacerbation of asthma symptoms in children already living with the condition. While pediatric asthma patients typically have fewer attacks in the summer because they’re not in school and constantly exposed to respiratory viruses and other indoor triggers, the data showed that their conditions were much less controlled during the summer of 2023 as huge wildfires burned. (Clinically, “asthma control” refers to milder symptoms like coughing and shortness of breath, as well as severe problems like attacks. So during that summer, pediatric patients were reporting more symptoms.) At the same time, climate change is extending growing seasons, meaning plants produce more pollen, which also exacerbates that chronic disease. “All of those factors compound to really complicate what healthcare providers have previously understood to be a safe time of year for children with asthma,” Maassel said.

Researchers are also finding that as smoke travels through the atmosphere, it transforms. It tends to produce ozone, for instance, that irritates the lungs and triggers asthma. “There’s also the potential for increased formation of things like formaldehyde, which is also harmful to human health. It’s a hazardous air pollutant,” said Rebecca Hornbrook, who studies wildfire smoke at the National Center for Atmospheric Research but wasn’t involved in either study, though a colleague was involved in the emissions one. (Last month, the Trump administration announced plans to dismantle NCAR, which experts say could have catastrophic effects.)

As wildfires worsen, so too does the public health crisis of smoke, even in places that never had to deal with the haze before. Governments now have to work diligently to protect their people, like improving access to air purifiers, especially in schools. “This is no longer an isolated or geographically confined issue,” Maassel said. “It’s really spreading globally and to places that have never experienced it before.”

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/31895293

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/59966675

https://www.cell.com/patterns/fulltext/S2666-3899(25)00278-8

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/29634364

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• A new Nature study projects wildfire smoke will cause 71,000 excess deaths annually in the U.S. by 2050, representing $608 billion in damages that exceed all other estimated climate costs combined.
• Researchers linked climate conditions to fire emissions, smoke concentrations and mortality using historical death records and satellite data, finding that approximately 41,000 annual deaths already occur from wildfire smoke.
• More than half of projected deaths occur in Eastern U.S. states due to population density and long-range smoke transport, with health impacts lasting up to three years after exposure.
• Even if nations dramatically cut emissions, more than 60,000 Americans will still likely die annually from wildfire smoke by 2050 because Earth’s climate system takes decades to respond to changes, making adaptation strategies like air filters and forest management critical despite their limitations.

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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/28029457

The public has less than a week remaining to comment on the administration’s plans.

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