this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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God willing, Iran will give them such a bloody nose that they're dissuaded from any further actions.
That's why I'm not so upset with the Iran situation. The American government will face so much damage from this (economic, militaristic, political) that their appetite for war wouldn't be much (for a decade perhaps). At least that's my opinion after looking at iraq and Afghanistan.
This obviously changes if somehow the Iranian people topple the theocracy without American boots on the ground. This is definitely what the us admin is hoping for (and getting the shah back), but this looks... difficult...
Once American boots hit the ground, it's just another Iraq. So many factions and separatists sitting in Iran rn, who are being suppressed by the theocracy.
Also, the theocracy was arming, training and supporting islamist fascists in the neighborhood for decades. Will remnants of this regime just forget how to do that in their own country?
Again, this all hinges on the will of the Iranian public. How hard are they willing to fight for democracy? Will they get rid of the theocracy? Will they resist the terrorists? Will they resist US pressure to reestablish the monarchy? How do they deal with the separatists? Does a sentiment of war take precedence over a sentiment of "stfu, please stfu and keep the peace, we're Iranians, war is bad, peace is good, please please just stfu"?
That's an interesting take. I was assuming the US was just going to destroy a bunch of infrastructure with munitions and declare victory. If US soldiers are deployed it seems like there could be a huge backlash.
I hope you're right.
Yeah, I can't see how just destroying infrastructure is going to accomplish anything. Total regime change seems to be the only logical end goal.
Military angle: Intelligence says that Iran is super close to having nukes. Random strikes on nuke labs, assassinations of nuke scientists, etc. won't help anymore cuz Iran has put all their facilities inside that big ass mountain. Total regime change is the only method through which Iran stops pursuit of nukes. Just killing the Ayatollah and the entirety of the high command is a waste of bombs if that momentum isn't used to build something further.
Trumpian angle: My guess is that he's just doing it for "legacy" purposes. Similar to Putin and Ukraine. Putin wanted a legacy similar to Peter the great. Trump probably wants something like that. That's why he was trying to force himself on Greenland and Canada. That's why the Gulf of America bullshit exists. Little men with big egos. He was getting too rapey, which is probably why his advisors advised him to take it out on Iran as it would be the least damaging compared to Greenland or fkin Canada lol. But this again becomes super unpredictable too! This entire Iran thing could stop on Trump's whim.
Economic angle: Not so confident of what I'm saying here, but my guess is that this is quite good for big oil and defense contractors. Defense contractors want more consumption of their wares and services. Big oil wants to be able to have a stake in extracting and exporting Iranian oil and gas. Anything aside from achieving this final goal hurts them, as their product becomes more expensive due to higher shipping costs through the strait of Hormuz, thus reducing demand.