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I don't think the billionaires move because of a 1 time 5% wealth tax, depending on the rules, many won't be able to move in time anyway.
But if the tax is 5% every year, I'm pretty sure most billionaires would. Even if it's not all of them.
But when it's easy to move not too far away and avoid it many will.
Remember most billionaires don't register an income nearly as extreme as their fortune.
If a billionaire pays 30% tax on $100 mil. income, and most don't because of deductibles and outright cheating, then that's $30 mil. in tax.
I they pay 5% in wealth tax on a fortune of $1 billion, that's $50 mil. That would mean the wealth tax is higher than their income tax.
And if they can move almost anywhere else to avoid it they will.
Also the psychological effect of suddenly introducing a high yearly wealth tax would be worse than starting moderately with 0.5%, which my own government in Denmark has suggested they might, and even that the rich threw a hissy fit over. But start moderately, with 0.5%, then wait a couple of years and increase by 0.25%.
It's not that I think this is really fair, I personally think the very rich should pay more for the privilege of enjoying to be rich.
And the money should go to make conditions better for the poor and middle class.
I also very much agree with what Mamdani has done. Because they can't just move away to avoid those taxes on for instance their luxury houses that make a British castle look modest. They can't just move away and then come visit as they please, they would have to actually sell the property to avoid the tax.