this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2026
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[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 3 points 2 hours ago (2 children)

Can you elaborate? Why 0.8 in South Korea is so much worse than 1.08 in Poland?

[–] the_strange@feddit.org 4 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

The growth (or in this case decline) is exponential. 1.08 is bad, 0.80 is terrifying. 1.08 is roughly half of the fertility needed for a stable population (about 2.1 children per woman). This means that per generation your population shrinks by half its size. 0.8 is another 25% lower. At an exponential rate these differences add up fast. The first one gives you (roughly) one child per 8 great grandparents. The other one needs 18. So over 3 generations the population shrinks by another factor of more than a half.

[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 1 points 59 minutes ago (1 children)

But the birthrates are still falling everywhere. Countries that are at 1.08 today will be at 0.8 soon. I think they are just hitting the problem sooner, not that they are facing a different issue.

[–] the_strange@feddit.org 1 points 26 minutes ago (1 children)

Here's a visualization of the birth rates of Japan, Poland and Germany against those of South Korea:
https://georank.org/birth-rate/japan/south-korea
https://georank.org/birth-rate/poland/south-korea
https://georank.org/birth-rate/germany/south-korea

Japan and Poland have been stable, maybe slightly declining, since the early 2000s, and Germany has been stable for 50, all below replacement, whereas South Korea is still going down.

I am no demographic expert, so take this with a grain of salt, but for the moment it doesn't look like the other countries are going to hit the same problems at the same severity anytime soon whereas South Korea is going to get hit by the full force of their demographic issues within a few short decades.

[–] stenAanden@feddit.dk 1 points 51 seconds ago

I am truly convinced after seeing line go down.

[–] stenAanden@feddit.dk -1 points 2 hours ago

Westerners just REALLY want wealthy, peaceful Asian countries to be uniquely awful.