this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2026
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It's South Carolina, the Dems have ZERO chance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
You have to go back to 1960 to find a Democratic Senator from South Carolina:
J. Strom Thurmond
Who then switched to the Republican party in 1964 and opposed the Civil Rights Act.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond_filibuster_of_the_Civil_Rights_Act_of_1957
Lindsey Graham only got 54% last go... It's far from impossible.
It's unlikely... But given the negativity across the board for Trump's shit this year resulting in massive shifts in previously pretty strong Trump districts, combined with a baseline of only 54%... It's not an impossibility at all.
Trump helped turn Georgia blue in 2020 and has made it a senatorial swing state. He's more unpopular now
This will be the best opportunity, but the last time was a Presidential election, not a mid term. Voter turnout is not the same.
Look at the last mid term election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina
672,942 - 54.27%
480,933 - 38.78%
The latest election in 2020 per your source was 54.44% for Graham and 44.17% for his opponent.
That is not an impossible margin. The Republicans will not benefit from running an incumbent, and the Republican party has never been more unpopular. This is a very good chance.
Just look at Georgia until Osoff and Warnock Georgia had been red for a very very long time. Just as long as South Carolina.
Past elections don't predict future elections. They are certainly indicators, but there's way more to it.
Fritz Hollings, a conservative Democrat (and therefore not far off from being a Republican), was a senator of South Carolina until 2005.
i mean back in the day (when i was young and naive. i swear things were really different then though!) conservatives from liberal states and liberals from conservative states had a lot in common. a hell of a lot more than they do now at least.