34
Legendary economist Gary Shilling says consumer signals point to a recession in the next 12 months
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2026
34 points (97.2% liked)
United States | News & Politics
4257 readers
249 users here now
Welcome to !usa@midwest.social, where you can share and converse about the different things happening all over/about the United States.
If you’re interested in participating, please subscribe.
Rules:
Be respectful and civil. No racism/bigotry/hateful speech.
No pics of text
Memes are now allowed, as long as they're US centric, general political memes please see !politicalmemes@lemmy.ca
Post news related to the United States.
No NYPost, Breitbart, Daily Mail, Daily Wire
founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
There is almost no point in history you could not make the case for a recession in the next year.
As much as I'd like to say he's right, any prediction right now is nothing more than a guess. There are policy choices that cannot be predicted, that would swamp any prediction.
As much as I agree with you shit is weird. The AI bubble is still growing and the war in Iran is still not resolved. The SPR is still being drained and just a macroeconomics reminder: the ENTIRE economy runs on OIL! So yes things are weird and until the war in Iran is resolved we are in great danger.
Oh to be sure there are a huge number of massive risk factors. Pretty much every extreme economic event is on the table right now. WW3 and or US civil war are technically possible. At the same time, 3 people die, and the entire planet changes politically, economic forces change and there could be a great opportunity for the world.
Most outcomes are nowhere near those extremes, but they're all magnitudes more likely than winning power ball, and someone wins that every year.