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Legendary economist Gary Shilling says consumer signals point to a recession in the next 12 months
(www.businessinsider.com)
We're already in a recession though
this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2026
34 points (97.2% liked)
United States | News & Politics
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it’s depressioning time
We're currently the place settings still in midair as the table cloth gets pulled out only to find the table was missing this entire time
You know it's bad when even your recessions get recessions.
cool so what do we do, timing the market doesn’t work
Depends on your age and risk profile. Timing the marker doesn't lead to good gains. But being out of the market doesn't have a risk of loss. Statistically, you're better off in the market.
However, if you don't have liquid savings, get the buffer ready now. If you are looking at changing job, be wary of last-in-first-out. If you are taking on debt, like a mortgage, consider how that will go with a recession.
what are you sitting your wealth in?
hyperinflation can murder you being out
bonds are a joke with orange turd
land requires water or you’ll be holding the bag
metals are a scam atm
Ive got a mortgage. Everthing gets offset against it. My pension has been moved from high growth option to stable option and some cash. Designed for when close to retirement. Im still 20 years from retirement.
All options for commercial and reisdential property has been moced to zero. Share allocations moved away from usa. Im actually bssed in australia. Weve had a bumonin the last few weeks, just due to the us dollar loaing value. However the aussie dollar is already weak so its just moving back to long term averages.
Yes, inflation xan be a problem but its generally back in normal range here. Oil shock has not had as much of an inflation shock as in the past as were less dependent on it for all energy. I think el nino will be a biggee shock than hormuz.
yea kinda the same with mortgage and 401k but usa
want to move away from us exposure but not sure anything is better, when this pops it’ll be global but with shit like elon fucking retail nasdaq, I am just not reassured that us regulations will be enforced
Pull out of the stock market. Buy gold. Buy stocks when somebody smart says we’re officially in a recession. Sell stocks when people start going back to Whole Foods, or whatever your fancy grocery chain is. This is not real advice. I’m not a finance person.
"Stagflation and high inflation is still a risk" geez that's the worst thing that can happen to the American consumer. The article doesn't mention it but we are still drawing on our oil reserves here in the USA. We will continue to do so because we DON'T PRODUCE ENOUGH AND NEED TO IMPORT. I'm still shocked the market hasn't gone crazy about this being a fact.
So what happens if we COMPLETELY USE UP ALL RESERVE OIL? Well let's talk about macroeconomics: the entire economy runs on oil. It's all dependent on oil. You may not like it and you may be in denial. But without oil the entire thing starts collapsing. We talked about this in April when the war started but people just kinda forgot about it? We're SLEEPWALKING towards catastrophic depression level event if we run out of oil. Imagine being out of a job and everything (food, clothing, everyday items taken for granted) increasing in price even though people can't afford to pay. Shit is scary!
There is almost no point in history you could not make the case for a recession in the next year.
As much as I'd like to say he's right, any prediction right now is nothing more than a guess. There are policy choices that cannot be predicted, that would swamp any prediction.
As much as I agree with you shit is weird. The AI bubble is still growing and the war in Iran is still not resolved. The SPR is still being drained and just a macroeconomics reminder: the ENTIRE economy runs on OIL! So yes things are weird and until the war in Iran is resolved we are in great danger.
Oh to be sure there are a huge number of massive risk factors. Pretty much every extreme economic event is on the table right now. WW3 and or US civil war are technically possible. At the same time, 3 people die, and the entire planet changes politically, economic forces change and there could be a great opportunity for the world.
Most outcomes are nowhere near those extremes, but they're all magnitudes more likely than winning power ball, and someone wins that every year.