Technology

I think there is something more interesting going on in the Jacob Coxon story because it's [the] phrase "everyone at anthropic believes that AI is an existential risk"... Every organization has to instill some kind of beliefs among its members in order to do the work it does, right? Everybody at Goldman Sachs believes the free market is great, capitalism is the best system, and that they are the wealth creators who deserve big bonuses. Everyone in the Mormon church believes they should all tithe 10% of their income, and that they each get a special planet when they die. And everyone who worked at Philip Morris in the 80s believed that cigarettes tasted great and did not cause any of that nasty cancer. There's Upton Sinclair quote, "It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." Well, the opposite is also true. It's guaranteed that someone will believe something if their salary depends on them believing it.

Now, let's just grant that all the people in these organizations definitely know things about finance and Mormonism and cigarettes and AI that you might not know because they are insiders and you are not. They have access to information and experiences that you do not have. And that might even make it a little bit difficult for you to win an argument with them. But arguing with their belief -- trying to figure out whether or not its truth value is true or false -- is not the only way to take a skeptical attitude towards it. We can also ask, what work is the belief doing for them. What does the thing that they believe allow the organization they're a part of to do that it wouldn't be able to do if the people in the organization didn't believe that thing?

And this started to become clearer to me when I started listening to the actual claims that Jacob Coxin was making because a lot of them don't really add up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pauBYSQ1K_c