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3.5% participation is required for a population to reach a Tipping Point, and start a trend that leads to change. In America, that's about 12.5 million people. The last No Kings protest was about 5.5 million people, this one was around 7 million, so we're getting closer.
The thing to remember, because MAGA surely does, is that the 12.5 million doesn't all have to be out marching. The No Kings protesters represent less than half of their actual numbers. In fact, they probably represent less than 20% of their total. A LOT of sympathizers stayed home, most of them, in fact.
MAGA understands that the protesters are only a small portion of the actual resistance, and they know they are surrounded. It's time that the rest of the country recognizes that.
No it doesn't and stop posting this as gospel and read what the people who observed this actually say. For one there is one where 6% of the population was involved and it failed. Another protests are becoming less effective both peaceful and violent. Another other factors are also important besides the 3.5 number. Look up what these guys actually say instead of arriving some magical number.
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that "rule" was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I'm also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of "converting" certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don't get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal's discord had about 100k members, and it's population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march