It's long past time we remove the tariffs on Chinese EVs. I think the only reason Carney hasn't done it yet is because they want all trade levers available to negotiate CUSMA, but I think we may want to consider giving up on CUSMA entirely.

For that matter we should start building a much tighter relationship with China overall. They may end up being an ally, as strange as it sounds.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 5 points 2 months ago (2 children)

For that matter we should start building a much tighter relationship with China overall. They may end up being an ally, as strange as it sounds.

That's sounds indeed strange, and it will never become reality. If and when Canada opts for a 'tighter relationship' with China, it will only weakens itself. China will use any leverage to bully its so-called 'allies' as it has been doing for decades. Canada won't be an exemption (China's tariffs on Canadian canola was a good example for this).

The only option for Canada is a strong diversification of its trade, particularly with democracies in Europe, in the Indo-Pacific, and elsewhere imo.

[–] RaskolnikovsAxe@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Canada's relationship with China has been destroyed by our allegiance to the US and our alignment with their foreign policy and trade policy.

Frankly China is much more predictable and much less of a threat to me than the US, and to be honest I don't believe any of the standard narratives coming out of the US or any of their treasonous backers.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 7 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Which are China's allies? Literally all trade partners have increasing deficits, economic and political coercion is widespread, transnational repression has been increasing, China's interference in domestic affairs and election is strong not only in Canada but everywhere. And that's just a tiny selection of bad examples.

Just name one country that ever benefited from a 'tight relationship' with China in the long term?

Which non-Chinese company had ever long-term success in the Chinese domestic market?

Having said that, the choice is not just between the US and China. Canada must diversify its trade away from both the US and China.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Which non-Chinese company ever had long-term success in the Chinese domestic market?

Companies: Volkswagen, GM, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, Intel, Foxconn, Siemens, SAP, IBM, Sony, Panasonic, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, P&G, Unilever, Nestle, L’Oreal, Nike, Adidas, Walmart, Costco, IKEA, KFC, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Haagen-Dazs, Budweiser, Shell, Exxon, Caterpillar, 3M, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Goldman, Sequoia, McKinsey, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, J&J, Roche...

That list could go on for ages. These are just big ones, and there are whole sectors not even touched on.

Just name one country that ever benefited from a 'tight relationship' with China in the long term?

Okay.

Countries: Vietnam, Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, Russia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Ethiopia, Chile, Germany, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Nigeria, South Africa, Peru, Chile, Angola, Greece, Hungary, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Oman, Qatar, Algeria, Morocco, Ecuador, Bolivia, Sudan... and so on.

Seriously, why do you think so many companies have the China market as an essential component of their business, and have done for decades? And, why do you think most countries have China as their number one trading partner? They wouldn't if they weren't benefiting, but somehow you have either convinced yourself that you know better than all of them or you're just posting entirely in bad faith.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org -1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Can you tell me how even one of them benefits?

These are just random lists of companies and countries. Literally all the countries, for example, have been showing increased trade deficits with China, while many trade their commodities and raw materials for high-end goods. Especially in Asia and Africa, they are prone to political and economic coercion (e.g., the Hambantota International Port in Sri Lanka, the country's second largest port, is owned now by China, which is one reason why Sri Lanka's government lacks de-facto economic independence).

Workers' rights violations are widespread in literally all these countries, aggression against its neighbours on land and at sea. Just to name a few examples.

The 'bad faith' posting comes from you. This list is a very bad joke.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Random companies? These are all companies that have been doing huge business in China for years. Some have been there for 30 years or more and have China as a huge part of what makes them successful.

Go read some financial statements yourself. Go read some trade and investment data from countries.

You just posted one of the most absurdly ignorant statements possible about business and economic engagement with China in claiming that nobody has seen long-term benefits, and now you're doubling down? It's completely detached from reality.

If not for your posting history I would give you the benefit of the doubt that you're just an uninformed and misinformed person, but people don't set up sock puppets for good faith activity.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org -1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The numbers clearly say that there are no long-term benefits from trade and/or economic ties with China, except for China itself.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I encourage anyone to go do the research for themselves. No need to trust me. They will easily find for themselves how wrong and manipulative the positions you're pushing are. You are here actively misleading people.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

What is your research? You're posting a series of bold claims paired with second-hand intimidation, but no clear, verifiable information.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

There's nothing bold about any claims I'm making for anyone that knows much at all about these topics.

Want a single example of a foreign business with long-term benefits in China? Take KFC. They've been in China since the 80s, have 2× as many restaurants in China as they do in the US, and almost double the revenue. Not long-term benefit? Sure seems like it to me.

Want an example of a country? Take Indonesia. $140B of annual bilateral trade. High-value infrastructure development. Development of their critical minerals industry and their green tech industry, including large projects like hydropower. Investment and building of industrial capacities such as smelting to do value-adding work domestically. All things that contribute to Indonesia's improved competitiveness in the global economy, and helping them maintain an overall surplus in their global trade.

So, Indonesia is exporting raw materials and increasingly some value-added products from those, and this is what supports a trade surplus overall, and they're importing low-cost consumer goods from China that allow better quality of life for people while also importing things like machinery to improve industrialization.

Doesn't sound bad.

Anyone who knows much about these topics would know the bold claims are your absurd suggestions that no companies or countries have long-term benefits with China.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Take Indonesia. $140B of annual bilateral trade.

Indonesia suffers a one-way economic dependence from China. Indonesia has a structural trade deficit with China. It also mainly exports commodities (such as oils, mineral fuels, nickel) while high-end products are imported from China (such as machinery, electronic equipment), making it largely impossible for Indonesia to develop its own industry.

As one study states:

Significant Chinese investments in Indonesia’s critical minerals and renewable energy sectors have created path dependency, as much of the technological know-how Indonesia sought to acquire for its economic transformation is 75% controlled by Chinese companies. Since these projects rely on Chinese raw materials or midstream processing, this keeps Jakarta’s critical minerals industrial ecosystem tied to Beijing’s technological and financial orbit. Recent developments – including South Korea’s LG Energy Solution withdrawal and the likelihood of its replacement by a Chinese company – indicate that competitive pressure on Chinese firms remains limited and may even be narrowing. Still, this would not change the underlying dependence of Indonesia’s downstream industries on Chinese technology, capital, and supply chains. -[Emphasis mine.]

This economic dependency will, among others, limit Indonesia political sovereignty. For example, Indonesia will unlikely follow the Philippines’ transparency against China regarding Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea.

One report - among many others - on that reads (here is an archived link):

... The Philippines’ transparency initiative is crucial for addressing and countering disinformation and misinformation, as well as exposing China’s unlawful activities in the South China Sea. Even though Indonesia often faces similar threats from China in the North Natuna Sea, it is less likely to implement such a transparency initiative ... Transparency initiatives may not always be a policy choice for other Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia ... Therefore, while a ‘transparency initiative’ could put pressure on China to comply with international law and avoid reckless behaviour in the South China Sea, Indonesia is less likely to implement such a policy ...

There is much more information about Indonesian-Chinese relationship, and literally all of them point in a similar direction. With Indonesia becoming increasingly dependent on China, Beijing exploits this relationship to achieve not just commercial goals and political coercion, very mich as it does with all of its other 'partner' countries.

You are right in that Indonesia is importing low-cost consumer goods from China, but this doesn't not "allow better quality of life for people" as you claim. Your statement is wrong. Already in 2024, Indonesia has introduced measures to limit sales of cheap imports on e-commerce platforms such as Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop that are hurting local firms.

This is just a TINY summary of why your claim of Indonesia benefiting from its relationship with China is outright false.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The absolutely predictable reply of running to pieces by organizations like ASPI and Lowy to find ideologically aligned and bias-confirming snippets, because you don't actually have any depth in international development economics or the nuances of Southeast Asian policy.

All you're actually demonstrating is a lack of understanding. Conflating a structural trade deficit, that is actually standard for a developing nation with a manufacturing base early in development, with "economic dependence" is, as typical for your posts, all about ideology not about reality.

Importing capital goods and machinery is the typical mechanism for nations to industrialize. It is not a trap. It's the same development ladder that Japan, South Korea, and China used to climb up. This is how flying geese works.

Also, presenting Lowy and ASPI as objective sources is laughable. Do you know these think tanks and how they fit into the picture of the region? Both have been heavily funded by US/Western defense and government interests or benefactors tied to those. They operate to produce knowledge products that facilitate opposition to Chinese influence. Quoting them to make a shallow "China bad" argument is, at best, circular. Really, it's your standard propaganda.

You're pushing the idea that Indonesia’s 2024 e-commerce restrictions sre proof of a failed relationship? Nope. That is a demonstration of Indonesia’s agency in the relationship. A dependent puppet state wouldn't do things like ban TikTok Shop or tax Chinese imports to protect domestic SMEs. So, it's actually a counterpoint to the narrative you're trying to push. A nice self own.

What they're actually doing in Indonesia is leveraging the smile curve of value-added production. They banned the export of raw nickel ore and forced Chinese firms to build refineries inside Indonesia. That pulls the country up the value chain and is part of the development process.

As for your take on the South China Sea, Indonesia’s refusal to mimic the Philippines’ "transparency initiative" isn’t them being afraid. They have a long-standing, non-aligned foreign policy doctrine of being "free and active." They are actually prioritizing strategic autonomy and ASEAN centrality over becoming a pawn in US-China containment.

Oh, and did you know the "transparency initiative" is based on work of a US air force colonel who moved out of direct military service into operating an organization focused on serving the same US defense goals but at arms length? Probably not. Did you watch the US senate hearings back in October where that former USAF colonel was advocating for the expanded use of the "transparency initiative" as a method serving US interests in the region and essentially lobbying for more funding to have his "independent" organization expand application of the method to serve US security interests? Probably not.

Well, that's exactly the type of stuff that Indonesia’s free and active policy doctrine is about keeping themselves out of. So, choosing not to be part of it isn't dependence. They are making a strategic choice aligned with long-standing doctrine to maintain independence and agency.

When you try to present hedging strategies that are actually demonstrations of agency as just being "dependency", you're just revealing your own inability to view SEA nations as independent, rational actors making their own intelligent moves.

What you have is an ideological commitment combined with a lack of experience and expertise, so you end up parroting a narrative funded by stakeholders from Washington and from Canberra with deep defense ties that treats Indonesia as a victim that ought to be saved through conformity with Western interests, but not as an active and intelligent agent in their own economic development. That is some pretty weak and foul-tasting sauce.

Instead of habitually pushing articles on topics you don't actually know much about to advance an ideological position, a good faith actor would take some substantial time to really read and research issues from a balanced range sources and raw data. But, that's not what you do here, is it? You push heavily ideologically aligned articles, cross posting to numerous communities to drive a narrative. Your account has been called out by multiple people as being one of several sock puppets engaged in the same activity pushing the same narratives here. So are you a good faith participant, or a bad faith participant? People can make up their own minds about that based on the evidence.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Do yourself a favour and stay away from wherever you get these fantasies.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Lol, as usual, Scotty Sockpuppet posts some bs to push a narrative and when the bs gets called out for what it is and runs up against anyone who actually knows something about the topic, Scotty runs away with his tail between his legs.

People can see through that.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

You are posting lists of countries and companies, make bold claims without providing any evidence.

People can see through? Yeah, I have no interest in such a discussion with a bad faith-actor parroting narratives straight out of China's propaganda outlets.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago

Lol, you're good for a laugh, Scotty. I'll give you credit for that.

Anyone can go look up the smile curve, flying geese, bebas dan aktif, ASPI & Lowy funding, Colonel Powell and the transparency initiative or that senate hearing, and can look up actual data.

I don't need to curate people's sources for them.

As for bold claims, you actually posted this:

Which non-Chinese company ever had long-term success in the Chinese domestic market?

And you expect anyone to take you even a tiny bit seriously?!? I'm still laughing at that.

So, if you "have no interest" in the discussion, by all means go ahead and run of with your tail between your legs again, and maybe consider stopping posting bs about topics you're ignorant of just to push an ideology.

[–] RaskolnikovsAxe@lemmy.ca 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I agree that we need to diversify our trade and our economy, in particular economic output.

But China is the world's next superpower. We should establish a strong relationship with them. Trade with them. And if needed - and it seems like it might be soon - ally with them militarily against the US.

Edit - you say

Literally all trade partners have increasing deficits, economic and political coercion is widespread, transnational repression has been increasing, China's interference in domestic affairs and election is strong

And I can't believe you don't see that this is exactly what is happening to us with the US, but they also want to destroy us economically and potentially attack us militarily.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 2 months ago

China’s interference in domestic affairs and election is strong not only in Canada but everywhere

CIA talking point. Only CIA is allowed to determine elections.

Just name one country that ever benefited from a ‘tight relationship’ with China in the long term?

The ones where the US hasn't invaded or created a puppet government in yet? All the US colonies are doing poorly in growth terms. Those trading freely with China are booming.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 0 points 2 months ago

China will use any leverage to bully its so-called ‘allies’ as it has been doing for decades.

This is a false accusation. The alternative is waiting for loving US capital and policy to be more apparently loving.

The only option for Canada is a strong diversification of its trade, particularly with democracies in Europe, in the Indo-Pacific, and elsewhere imo.

Democracies that are determined, like Canada's, by the CIA. Instead of having "fake democracy" values, value countries that aren't corrupt. The US colonies aren't in the list.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Allowing Chinese EVs to be imported will be the death of the auto industry in Canada. If they at least made the cars here that could be defensable but you do not want them being imported here even if you think you do.

They won't be so cheap if they're made here though, much harder to impose slave like conditions on your staff here.

[–] RaskolnikovsAxe@lemmy.ca 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Well, we can open the market to the Chinese, which you claim will destroy the Canadian market, but also get access to inexpensive Chinese cars, or wait until we have no market anyway since the US is going to fuck us, in which case we have no market and we won't have access to inexpensive Chinese cars. The first sounds better to me.

I would prefer to get commitment to build Chinese cars in Canada, for sure. We already built BYD buses but we fucked ourselves on that in respect of the US as well.

Regarding losing our industry, I'm not sure that's the case. We would lose the US but that's probably already going to happen.

I'm guessing Carney is going to discuss with Xi in the trip. He'll hold any potentials in his back pocket for leverage against the US in CUSMA talks.

I personally think we should be discussing a much deeper relationship with China, including military. Forget that US, they're finished.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Or if we're going to get fucked by the USA we can nationalize the factories we do have and make our own EV domestically instead of through the US OEMs. Or help a new Canadian EV OEM start if the US is going to abandon it.

Inviting China in is completely giving up on the topic and will result in 10s of thousands of jobs lost.

[–] RaskolnikovsAxe@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

I would love to see a Canadian EV, but I can recognize that this may be quite difficult unless the government is willing to spend lots of money. You and I might be okay with this but as with everything it will be trade-off of how much risk we want to incur in a long term diversification that drains short term funds that we may need in short order for other priorities, versus get the industry up and running again with assembly plants building Chinese vehicles so we don't completely collapse this year if the US decides to shit the bed.

I suspect Carney has this kind of decision to make.

Keep in mind that Carney is under attack for Stellantis. Imagine how much right wing dopes would foam at the mouth if billions were spent on a Canadian EV. Again I would probably be willing to listen to such a proposal, but I know there is more to this than me and my limited knowledge.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Seems like Ford and GM are blowing up their EV programs. Korea has good models. For battery plants, Stelantis/LG has started production, though Stelantis doesn't make EVs. They are building for ESS. Volkswagen has started building a battery plant. Skyview 2 is primarily ESS too. Tons of cancelations though, and Governments begging for refunds.

may be quite difficult unless the government is willing to spend lots of money

The future of auto industry is more automation and less jobs. $50B in funding since 2020 could be more than $5M per direct job created, and then so many cancelled projects looks bad. The 2009 bailout was $150k per every worker. $75B in last 20 years for auto subisidies. At 1.9m vehicles sold per year, the $10B/year over last 5 years is $5000+/vehicle sold (without any consumer price breaks), which is ok metric if exports/imports balance, I doubt employment will increase. I'm sure another economic collapse will happen that politicians tell us need more auto sector subsidies

Getting to a more precise point, Canada has one of the largest auto markets in the world about equal to France and UK despite half the population. China investing its own money in Canada manufacturing of autos, robots with deal for Canadian supply chain and resources is probably Canada's only future. It would provide much better value autos to consumers, and better value robots to Canadian manufacturers that lets them outcompete US. Canadian employment for factory building. EVs are better cars, and there would be no need for extra tax credits for good value vehicles.

Whether negotiating with US automakers or US government, posture should be that they need to make massive investments in Canada instead as compensation for past bailouts instead of weaseling more subsidies. Far more geopolitical tributes are owed by US to Canada. If they refuse then China, South east Asia, South Korea (a recent maybe), would be Canada's economic future.

2m annual Canadian vehicle market is a prize that the world should covet, and give it to the highest bidder, instead of a false, for the future, political employment football. Instead of Canadian taxpayers paying $5k per vehicle, auto buyers could save $5-$15k on vehicles with lower insurance rates, and lower taxi/uber rates due to lower capital and fuel/maintenance costs.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Imagine how much right wing dopes would foam at the mouth if billions were spent on a Canadian EV

I'm just picturing some sort of MAGA Albertan with a F350 rolling coal everywhere saying Carney is trying to kill our oil industry.

You mentioned assembly plant, that could also be an option va importing complete cars.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

local battery and motor plants with local materials would boost Canadian economy.

[–] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

If we were doing assembly at least some could come from here ya. But it's all out the window if they just cave and remove the import tarrif and welcome the cars in as is.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 2 months ago

Negotiating quotas, dealership investments, factories, is reasonable to reduce tariffs to a "revenue raising" level, but also pressure US/western firms to invest more (without subsidy) to keep the large Canadian auto market access.

[–] ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca -1 points 2 months ago

Enemy of my enemy. We should be expanding ties with China.