Hope AI collapses and we get an oversupply
this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2026
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To copy my comment on the beehaw.org post, because they and lemmy.world aren't federated:
This deal may make matters worse for more buyers, because PSMC used the Tongluo site to make legacy DRAM products – the kind of memory used in less advanced products. With the company now exiting the legacy chip biz, that memory will also become more scarce, giving the laws of supply and demand another moment in which to work their way on markets.
PSMC’s current DRAM capacity mainly relies on 25nm and 38nm nodes, which restricts DDR4 production to lower-density products.
I guess that that's more DDR4 supply drying up. It's going to be some very scarce years for memory until enough new production comes online.
EDIT:
https://tech.yahoo.com/computing/articles/amd-ryzen-chief-teases-return-201223682.html
AMD Ryzen chief teases return of older Zen 3 chips to fight soaring RAM prices — 'That's something we're actively working on right now'
Restarting production of DDR4-capable hardware isn't going to help nearly as much if nobody is producing DDR4. I guess that there's still DDR4 memory to scavenge from existing computers.
EDIT2:
As RAM crisis intensifies, DDR3 motherboards are making an improbable comeback
Here's one way to avoid paying an absolute fortune for RAM - forget DDR5 or even DDR4 memory, switch back to DDR3, as some folks are doing in China.
Now I regret throwing out the DDR3 memory that I have in the past.
Honestly I inherited an old Poweredge server and everything in it is dirt cheap. Like I can find RAM <1€/GB
One more thought
I don't think that, even if someone is willing to do so as a stopgap until memory production ramps up adequately, that it's possible to run Windows 11 on a DDR3-based system. DDR4 came out 12 years ago.
Not being able to run ai spyware 11 sounds like a big entry in the plus column to me 😅
Not officially, you have to hack the installer to skip TPM and secure boot checks
All those people saying that swap was useless must be feeling quite silly nowadays.
So does anyone know, is it hard to make RAM?
I'm not really a hardware person, but purely in terms of logic gates, making a memory circuit isn't going to be hard. I mean, a lot of chips contain internal memory. I'm sure that anyone that can fabricate a chip can fabricate someone's memory design that contains some amount of memory.
For PC use, there's also going to be some interface hardware. Dunno how much sophistication is present there.
I'm assuming that the catch is that it's not trivial to go out and make something competitive with what the PC memory manufacturers are making in price, density, and speed. Like, I don't think that if you want to get a microcontroller with 32 kB of onboard memory, that it's going to be a problem. But that doesn't really replace the kind of stuff that these guys are making.
EDIT: The other big thing to keep in mind is that this is a short-term problem, even if it's a big problem. I mean, the problem isn't the supply of memory over the long term. The problem is the supply of memory over the next couple of years. You can't just build a factory and hire a workforce and get production going the moment that someone decides that they want several times more memory than the world has been producing to date.
So what's interesting is really going to be solutions that can produce memory in the near term. Like, I have no doubt that given years of time, someone could set up a new memory manufacturer and facilities. But to get (scaled-up) production in a year, say? Fewer options there.
I mean you can't do it in your garage, but if you have the facility with the machines and the staff and the knowledge then yeah it's not hard.
There is actually a guy making CMOS transistors in his garage because he has some of the machines, but he can't make them micro-sized and can't make whole die sheets. (Also that's transistors for processors, not memory, but they parallel.)
The dirty stuff not so much but if you want it clean and pure yeah
Be careful where you buy it, some DIY lithographers will cut it with ROMs.
I tried once, it didn’t go well.
rams into someguy3
No.
Well, I hope they don't bcs that just means more AI :/.