A nationwide analysis finds most U.S. national parks are highly vulnerable to climate change, with many facing risks of irreversible ecological transformation rather than gradual decline. Wildfire, drought, pests, and sea-level rise are converging to reshape landscapes the parks were created to preserve.

Vulnerability is uneven: parks in the Midwest and eastern United States tend to face the greatest cumulative risk due to fragmented habitats, pollution, invasive species, and limited capacity for ecosystems to adapt. Many western parks appear more resilient but are exposed to multiple severe disturbances at once.

Coastal parks are threatened by rising seas and storm surge, while inland forests face compound stresses that can trigger long-term shifts from forest to shrubland or grassland. Once such transitions occur, returning to previous ecological conditions may be impossible.

As climate pressures intensify and policy responses weaken, park managers are shifting from preserving historical conditions to managing ongoing transformation. America’s parks may increasingly serve less as static sanctuaries and more as living records of how nature reorganizes under accelerating change.

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