this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2026
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politics

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Mind you, they won't hold a supermajority so they won't be able to overcome a filibuster unless they change the rules on that.

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[–] NekoKoneko@lemmy.world 65 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

The only answer is: Vote like the polls are wrong.

If there's one thing democrats are great at doing, it's pulling defeat from the jaws of victory. The GOP has outperformed polling pretty consistently, especially in red states that were contested the last few cycles.

From the article:

All of this analysis hinges on assuming that the polls are accurate. For three presidential elections in a row, pollsters have badly underestimated Trump’s appeal. And in general, as the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has pointed out, the pro-Democratic bias tends to be largest in red states, the very ones that Democrats need in order to take back the Senate. Moreover, not every poll has looked good for Democrats—a recent New York Times and Siena College survey found Collins ahead in Maine, though Jackson leads in most polls.

The good news for Democrats is that Trump-era midterm polls have been highly accurate on average, much more so than in presidential-election years. That’s because the midterm electorate includes fewer of the low-trust, politically disengaged voters who are so hard for pollsters to reach and disproportionately turn out when Trump is on the ballot.

I still stand by my concern. Trump has successfully remade the GOP into the Trump party, and even when he's not on the ballot, he's increasingly "on the ballot" for MAGA diehards who view it as everyone vs. Trump. I still think his cultists will turn out.

[–] mrmisses@lemmy.world 38 points 2 days ago

The polls are wrong unless you vote

[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 18 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Dunno, but make sure you vote like your life depends on it, because it very well may.

[–] Pratai@piefed.ca 2 points 2 days ago

For many, it 100% does.

[–] savvie@lemmy.zip 10 points 2 days ago
[–] Gibberish9031@lemmy.ml 7 points 2 days ago

Never believe in polls.

[–] genericuser2000@piefed.ca 11 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago)
[–] KC_Royalz@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago

What polls? Last time I saw kamala was up 30 points in iowa.

Polls don't matter only voting. So vote. Be double safe go in person and encourage those you know to do so as well. Wouldn't risk anything by mail this time.

[–] Pratai@piefed.ca 3 points 2 days ago

Read this as propaganda designed to lure people into a false sense of pre-victory so they feel it’s not necessary to vote-

AND VOTE EVEN HARDER.

[–] daychilde@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago

VOTE

unless you're a fascist, in which case you can DIAF.

[–] Sackett@thelemmy.club 4 points 2 days ago

I don't even think the Republicans would mind. It seems like both parties are playing hot potato with the economy and are both hoping it will pop during the "other teams" turn. I'm worried the Dems will meagerly take back the house, maybe the Senate, a D president will follow, the economy will truly collapse, the American public will blame the D's and fully embrace facism with open arms.

[–] bitjunkie@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

they won’t be able to overcome a filibuster unless they change the rules on that.

SO CHANGE THE FUCKING RULES ON IT.

[–] Fishnoodle@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

I'm just gonna vote and buy ammo dawg

[–] Mulligrubs@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Remember when HuffPo reported that Hillary Clinton had a 98% of winning the day before the election?

An aggregate of polls, as I recall.

[–] some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org 0 points 2 days ago

They're wrong. And even if they're right, Dems won't save us. They have no backbone.