this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2026
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You think Iran could control the Strait of Hormuz against two US carrier strike groups?
I think they could with mines, and missiles, and drones, be able to hit oil tankers well enough to shut down the straits of hormuz.
You don't think so? I thought they were going to do it last time and they didn't, so maybe I was mistaken.
There are certain things people can reasonably criticize the US military as being bad at, but I don't think anyone can credibly claim it isn't excellent at achieving air superiority. I mean, maybe it could turn out that the Navy is "fighting the last war" and unprepared for drones, but I don't think that's likely. Especially not against Iran (China I might give more credit to, what with their hypersonic missiles and all).
Iran prefers to go after ships with torpedo boats. Not the US Navy’s strongest defence.
I am not saying Iran would beat the US navy, just that it should be able to threaten cargo ships enough to shut down the strait of hormuz and thereabouts. Between mines, floating things that explode when something hits them, sometimes set to intermediate depths. That could be dropped by drones or missiles. To missiles and drones themselves, they should be able to shut down the trade, once there is a credible threat insurance should pull their coverage even if the navy is escorting them.
That is their only real card to play here. Well besides for taking out Saudi oil facilities, which is not a bad idea at all. No matter what the saudis say now that Iran showed they can hit them, the Saudis were the biggest proponents of war with Iran back in the president's first term. They deserve it, and they are more vulnerable, as the US doesn't protect them so much.
Besides for that, yeah maybe big maybe they could take out a ship, if they got lucky and overwhelmed their defenses?
I would expect countering that sort of thing because The ~~Spice~~ Oil Must Flow to be the Navy's first priority (aside from defending itself, obviously). But then again I'm not a military strategist, so what do I know?