Political Memes

"Appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak" - Sun Tzu

Both Russia and the US were thought to have very powerful military capability. Both made a strategic mistake when they decided to show everyone their hands.

I wouldn't say either nation is weak, but the power of deterrence was actually bigger than either one's true military power. Deterrence can be even better at protecting your people than actual military power. But you don't win offensive wars with deterrence.

Now, nobody's going to attack Russia or the US, so they can afford the loss in deterrence... But at least for the US, the middle eastern allies are now vulnerable to attack (particularly from Iran) and if China's willing to show their true hand, they might try Taiwan now. Though I imagine that perhaps China's leadership is wiser and won't repeat Putin's and Trump's mistakes. After all, their military might also be less powerful than we all think. Because it's very beneficial to have everyone think you can't be fucked with.

At the end of the day, it's hard to make efficient use of a large military. And the people protecting their own homeland have an advantage in morale. Invading a moderately weaker country is pretty stupid. Invading a moderately weaker country halfway across the world is even more stupid. To have an "easy" time conquering another nation, the power balance needs to be HEAVILY in your favor because of all the disadvantages of being the invading party.

TL;DR: Trump and Putin are idiots who gave away a huge advantage their countries had by showing how they are weaker than previously thought.