this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2026
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Look, whether Russia actually tries attacking a NATO member or not depends on NATO's ability to show it is unified and well prepared.
Russia is already testing our ability to defend ourselves. They regularily violate our airspace on purpose to see how long it takes for our response. They drop drones in the Baltic, fly a squadron of fighters into Estonia. They keep sabotaging and terrorising in NATO. They keep threatening us with nukes if we don't immidiatly stop supplying arms to Ukraine. This is how they started in Ukraine prior to 2014's incursion of "little green men". If we aren't ready, then I fear that a few "little green men" have their summer vacation in Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. NATO doesn't fear an outright attack. It fears a small scale attack by a Russia that believes we lack the cohesion and means to properly respond. One such small incursion would need to be properly met, that is why NATO needs to be well prepared.